Why meteorologists are able to detect tropical storms earlier and more often today
By
Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Aug 19, 2020 6:12 PM EDT
|
Updated Aug 19, 2020 6:12 PM EDT
As we move to the peak of hurricane season, we look back on the history of K-named storms, including the most infamous storm, Hurricane Katrina back in 2005.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has already been one for the record books, and the peak of hurricane season is still yet to come.
An astounding eight of the 11 named tropical storms this season have been the record-earliest for their respective letter, including Tropical Storm Kyle, which formed off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula last week, 10 full days before the historical Hurricane Katrina that ravaged Louisiana in 2005.
The 11 named systems that the Atlantic generated through Aug. 18 alone is noteworthy, since there is an average of 3.4 named storms in the basin to date, according to data from Colorado State University. And, the Atlantic typically yields 12 named tropical storms in an entire hurricane season, based on the 30-year average from 1981-2010. The season officially stretches from June 1 to Nov. 30, but storms sometimes occur earlier and later.
In the Atlantic and East Pacific basins, tropical storms are given a name when sustained one-minute-average winds of the system reach 39 mph or greater.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists have seen dozens of such storms over the decades, including the '50s, '60s and '70s, but they were never named.
“There are many factors for ‘named’ tropical systems,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Evan Myers. “As technology improves, a much denser network of data exists now from satellites, ships and other sources. Also, the decision to name a storm is a human decision, and not one made by nature. Historically systems that brought death, destruction, high winds and heavy rain were often not named, but they were tropical entities nonetheless. Today the very same storms would likely be named.”
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) declined to comment on whether criteria or processes of naming tropical storms have changed over time.
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Still, it is clear that the number of short-lived named storms, defined as storms lasting less than two days, in the Atlantic has notably increased since the late 1980s, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Figure 1: The number of Atlantic tropical storms lasting more than two days has not increased. Named storms lasting less than two days have increased sharply, and one reason for this is likely due to better observational technology. Figure adapted from Landsea, Vecchi, Bengtsson and Knutson (2009, J. Climate) (NOAA)
So, that may lead some to ask why there are far more named tropical storms over the past 10 years compared with even 20 years ago.
AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski offered up one of several explanations for the uptick in named tropical storms.
"The technology has steadily improved over the past 30 or 40 years, so that we are better able to determine whether a weather system has acquired a closed circulation, which defines a tropical depression, and has attained winds of 39 mph or higher, to become a tropical storm," Kottlowski said.
An excellent example of this technological advantage was with Tropical Storm Kyle this past week, he added. Tropical Storm Kyle formed at 5 p.m. EDT on Friday, Aug. 14, 185 miles southeast of Atlantic City, New Jersey, packing sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm churned up rough surf along the Northeast coast as it quickly moved to the east-northeast off the Eastern Seaboard. By Sunday morning, the storm had dissipated and was located well to the northeast of Newfoundland.
The above satellite image is of a tropical low just off the coast of North Carolina on Friday, Aug.14, 2020. AccuWeather meteorologists were able to use data, like these satellite images, to warn the public that Tropical Storm Kyle would soon form. (Photo/RAMMB)
"We were able to see high resolution satellite images showing the development of a low-level swirl, and a plethora of buoy and wind satellite data showed the wind speeds up to 39 mph," said Kottlowski.
Utilizing upgraded technology, AccuWeather was able to warn its clients of a tropical storm along the East Coast, and predicted it would later be named Kyle, early on Friday afternoon, a full four hours before the National Hurricane Center (NHC) did in fact name the storm and issue the first warnings and advisories.
The latest technology helps meteorologists feel more confident about tropical development and strength of tropical systems both close to the United States and those that are well offshore, Kottlowski said.
Unlike in the Atlantic this season, many of the named East Pacific storms have formed over the open waters of the basin and have had little impact on land. Improved coverage for meteorological data has helped with earlier detection of offshore systems in the basin over recent decades.
"There was a lack of consistent satellite coverage over the East Pacific until 1976, which has hindered the record keeping. Pre-season storms as well as weak storms that were well removed from land in the East Pacific were often ignored until the 1990s," explained Kottlowski.
The above image shows Hurricane Douglas spinning in the middle of the East Pacific Ocean on July 23, 2020. Douglas was able to be detected early on, helping meteorologists to warn Hawaii residents of the hurricane well before impacts began. (NOAA)
The improvement in technology enables meteorologists to more easily track the movement of tropical cyclones in the open waters of the oceans and also near-coast systems like Kyle, allowing for not only better record-keeping, but also earlier warnings to the public.
Kottlowski points out that better observation networks and data may not be the only causes behind the increase in tropical cyclones.
"Another issue at hand is the warm Atlantic water. Sea-surface temperatures are averaging 0.5ËC-1.0ËC [above normal] across most of the tropical and even subtropical basin," Kottlowski explained. "The Atlantic is in its 26th year of the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, where sea-surface temperatures average above normal during a 20- to 40-year cycle."
"I also believe some of this warming is due to the warming of the Earth," he added. "The oceans are natural heat sinks and absorb most of the excess heat so that global temperatures are not rising at an even higher amount."
Regardless of the exact cause in the increase in storms, meteorologists concur that the earlier advisories and information about developing tropical systems are issued to the public, the better. Advanced notice can allow people to prepare ahead of storms, which is critical.
“The greater the accuracy and the earlier the detection and detailed communication of weather forecasts and their expected impacts, the sooner people will have the information they need to make better decisions when faced with hazardous and severe weather,” said AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers. “That means more lives are saved, more property is protected, and more losses are prevented. When Hurricane Michael threatened, which struck near Mexico Beach, Florida, in 2018, AccuWeather predicted the area would look as if a bomb or a tsunami would hit the area and estimated the total loss and economic damage caused by Michael to be $30 billion. Because of our early warning and detailed weather forecast, people understood the gravity of the disaster and countless lives were saved.”
Myers said that better communications surrounding the impact of hurricanes and tropical storms for the greater safety and the protection of life and property is why he and his team of meteorologists developed its AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes. The innovative scaled is based on a broad range of critical factors to provide information people can use to evaluate the threat posed by a hurricane or tropical storm. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale which has been used by meteorologists for decades classifies storms by wind speed only. Like the Saffir-Simpson scale, the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes uses the 1 to 5 rating, but also adds an additional rating of "Less than 1." The "Less than 1" score provides insight on tropical cyclones that do not rise to a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Forecasters urged people living along the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast to remain vigilant for additional threats this season. In late July, AccuWeather forecasters, led by Kottlowski, upped their number of predicted tropical storms to 20-24, nine to 11 of which could strengthen further into hurricanes in 2020. Kottlowski called for a "hyperactive" heart of hurricane season, which begins in the middle of August and lasts until October.
AccuWeather Ready's hurricane preparedness checklist can help to keep you and your family prepared ahead of the next storm. Visit the AccuWeather hurricane center for all tropical weather news.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Hurricane
Why meteorologists are able to detect tropical storms earlier and more often today
By Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Aug 19, 2020 6:12 PM EDT | Updated Aug 19, 2020 6:12 PM EDT
As we move to the peak of hurricane season, we look back on the history of K-named storms, including the most infamous storm, Hurricane Katrina back in 2005.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has already been one for the record books, and the peak of hurricane season is still yet to come.
An astounding eight of the 11 named tropical storms this season have been the record-earliest for their respective letter, including Tropical Storm Kyle, which formed off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula last week, 10 full days before the historical Hurricane Katrina that ravaged Louisiana in 2005.
The 11 named systems that the Atlantic generated through Aug. 18 alone is noteworthy, since there is an average of 3.4 named storms in the basin to date, according to data from Colorado State University. And, the Atlantic typically yields 12 named tropical storms in an entire hurricane season, based on the 30-year average from 1981-2010. The season officially stretches from June 1 to Nov. 30, but storms sometimes occur earlier and later.
In the Atlantic and East Pacific basins, tropical storms are given a name when sustained one-minute-average winds of the system reach 39 mph or greater.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists have seen dozens of such storms over the decades, including the '50s, '60s and '70s, but they were never named.
“There are many factors for ‘named’ tropical systems,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Evan Myers. “As technology improves, a much denser network of data exists now from satellites, ships and other sources. Also, the decision to name a storm is a human decision, and not one made by nature. Historically systems that brought death, destruction, high winds and heavy rain were often not named, but they were tropical entities nonetheless. Today the very same storms would likely be named.”
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) declined to comment on whether criteria or processes of naming tropical storms have changed over time.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Still, it is clear that the number of short-lived named storms, defined as storms lasting less than two days, in the Atlantic has notably increased since the late 1980s, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Figure 1: The number of Atlantic tropical storms lasting more than two days has not increased. Named storms lasting less than two days have increased sharply, and one reason for this is likely due to better observational technology. Figure adapted from Landsea, Vecchi, Bengtsson and Knutson (2009, J. Climate) (NOAA)
So, that may lead some to ask why there are far more named tropical storms over the past 10 years compared with even 20 years ago.
AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski offered up one of several explanations for the uptick in named tropical storms.
"The technology has steadily improved over the past 30 or 40 years, so that we are better able to determine whether a weather system has acquired a closed circulation, which defines a tropical depression, and has attained winds of 39 mph or higher, to become a tropical storm," Kottlowski said.
An excellent example of this technological advantage was with Tropical Storm Kyle this past week, he added. Tropical Storm Kyle formed at 5 p.m. EDT on Friday, Aug. 14, 185 miles southeast of Atlantic City, New Jersey, packing sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm churned up rough surf along the Northeast coast as it quickly moved to the east-northeast off the Eastern Seaboard. By Sunday morning, the storm had dissipated and was located well to the northeast of Newfoundland.
The above satellite image is of a tropical low just off the coast of North Carolina on Friday, Aug.14, 2020. AccuWeather meteorologists were able to use data, like these satellite images, to warn the public that Tropical Storm Kyle would soon form. (Photo/RAMMB)
"We were able to see high resolution satellite images showing the development of a low-level swirl, and a plethora of buoy and wind satellite data showed the wind speeds up to 39 mph," said Kottlowski.
Utilizing upgraded technology, AccuWeather was able to warn its clients of a tropical storm along the East Coast, and predicted it would later be named Kyle, early on Friday afternoon, a full four hours before the National Hurricane Center (NHC) did in fact name the storm and issue the first warnings and advisories.
Related:
The latest technology helps meteorologists feel more confident about tropical development and strength of tropical systems both close to the United States and those that are well offshore, Kottlowski said.
Unlike in the Atlantic this season, many of the named East Pacific storms have formed over the open waters of the basin and have had little impact on land. Improved coverage for meteorological data has helped with earlier detection of offshore systems in the basin over recent decades.
"There was a lack of consistent satellite coverage over the East Pacific until 1976, which has hindered the record keeping. Pre-season storms as well as weak storms that were well removed from land in the East Pacific were often ignored until the 1990s," explained Kottlowski.
The above image shows Hurricane Douglas spinning in the middle of the East Pacific Ocean on July 23, 2020. Douglas was able to be detected early on, helping meteorologists to warn Hawaii residents of the hurricane well before impacts began. (NOAA)
The improvement in technology enables meteorologists to more easily track the movement of tropical cyclones in the open waters of the oceans and also near-coast systems like Kyle, allowing for not only better record-keeping, but also earlier warnings to the public.
Kottlowski points out that better observation networks and data may not be the only causes behind the increase in tropical cyclones.
"Another issue at hand is the warm Atlantic water. Sea-surface temperatures are averaging 0.5ËC-1.0ËC [above normal] across most of the tropical and even subtropical basin," Kottlowski explained. "The Atlantic is in its 26th year of the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, where sea-surface temperatures average above normal during a 20- to 40-year cycle."
Related:
"I also believe some of this warming is due to the warming of the Earth," he added. "The oceans are natural heat sinks and absorb most of the excess heat so that global temperatures are not rising at an even higher amount."
Regardless of the exact cause in the increase in storms, meteorologists concur that the earlier advisories and information about developing tropical systems are issued to the public, the better. Advanced notice can allow people to prepare ahead of storms, which is critical.
“The greater the accuracy and the earlier the detection and detailed communication of weather forecasts and their expected impacts, the sooner people will have the information they need to make better decisions when faced with hazardous and severe weather,” said AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers. “That means more lives are saved, more property is protected, and more losses are prevented. When Hurricane Michael threatened, which struck near Mexico Beach, Florida, in 2018, AccuWeather predicted the area would look as if a bomb or a tsunami would hit the area and estimated the total loss and economic damage caused by Michael to be $30 billion. Because of our early warning and detailed weather forecast, people understood the gravity of the disaster and countless lives were saved.”
Myers said that better communications surrounding the impact of hurricanes and tropical storms for the greater safety and the protection of life and property is why he and his team of meteorologists developed its AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes. The innovative scaled is based on a broad range of critical factors to provide information people can use to evaluate the threat posed by a hurricane or tropical storm. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale which has been used by meteorologists for decades classifies storms by wind speed only. Like the Saffir-Simpson scale, the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes uses the 1 to 5 rating, but also adds an additional rating of "Less than 1." The "Less than 1" score provides insight on tropical cyclones that do not rise to a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Forecasters urged people living along the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast to remain vigilant for additional threats this season. In late July, AccuWeather forecasters, led by Kottlowski, upped their number of predicted tropical storms to 20-24, nine to 11 of which could strengthen further into hurricanes in 2020. Kottlowski called for a "hyperactive" heart of hurricane season, which begins in the middle of August and lasts until October.
AccuWeather Ready's hurricane preparedness checklist can help to keep you and your family prepared ahead of the next storm. Visit the AccuWeather hurricane center for all tropical weather news.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo