Weekend storm could be SoCal’s last rain for months
Rain and snow are returning to California and parts of the West, but significant drought relief remains unlikely for many areas in need.
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As the dry season nears, a storm set to sweep across the interior West this weekend could be one of the last to deliver meaningful rainfall to coastal Southern California until fall. However, AccuWeather meteorologists say a lingering dip in the jet stream may bring one or two more opportunities into May.
A storm that pushed onshore in the West this past weekend brought up to a few tenths of an inch of rain to coastal areas of Southern California. That storm is helping to spur on drenching downpours and severe thunderstorms over the southern Plains through midweek.
There will be one more opportunity for some rain to dampen the ground in Los Angeles and San Diego, but it will depend on the storm's track, speed and how much moisture it is able to pull in from the Pacific. Much of the precipitation from the storm — low-elevation rain showers and mountain snow showers — will be associated with a limited amount of Pacific moisture and a strengthening puddle of cold air in the upper levels of the atmosphere.
Rainfall from the storm over Southern California is likely to be sporadic, with some areas potentially picking up a couple of tenths of an inch, while other areas may not receive a drop of rain this weekend, mainly on Sunday.
The cold air at the upper levels of the atmosphere would also lead to bubbling clouds during the midday and afternoon hours, which could spawn locally gusty thundershowers with hail this weekend.
Despite the chance of some thunderstorm downpours scattered around the region, not enough rain is likely to fall to cause flash flooding or mudslides. However, a small amount of rain can create slick conditions on roads as water can mix with oils and other contaminants from vehicles.
"The rain and snow expected this weekend will have little to no impact on the Southern California drought since the amounts will be rather low," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said.
Rainfall in Southern California tends to drop off dramatically during the months of April and May. For example, during April, downtown Los Angeles typically receives close to 0.70 of an inch of rain. However, so far this month, only 0.22 of an inch has fallen, which occurred, in total, last Saturday. During a typical May, only about 0.30 of an inch of rain falls on average, or less than half that of April.
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The storm this weekend will bring some snow to the higher elevations and it is possible that conditions over Donner Pass, California, along Interstate 80, get slippery for a time. Some of the ridges and peaks in Southern California may pick up a small amount of slushy snow.
The lower temperatures associated with the storm will slow some of the natural spring melting of the snow cover over the middle and high country.
"The same storm could kick up winds over some of the high deserts this weekend, and that could be enough to trigger sporadic power outages," Merrill said.
There is still a chance of a similar style storm or two to bring the opportunity for some showers and thunderstorms through the first half of May.
"Water temperatures are still cooler than the historical average from Hawaii to Baja California, Mexico," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. The key here is that the cool water may hold back the routine large area of high pressure from developing in the far west, like we often see during the mid- to late spring. The development of high pressure will shut down shower activity and allow warmth and dry conditions to build across the West ahead of the North American monsoon.
Sierra Nevada snowpack — a key source of water for streams and reservoirs later in winter and spring — is currently between 75% and 85% of the historical average in the central and northern mountains. In the southern Sierra, snowpack levels drop to around 50% of normal.
Depending on where the storm stalls early next week, it could bring repeated downpours to parts of the southern High Plains, thus easing drought problems there. However, it is also possible that too much of a good thing may occur, and excessive runoff leads to flash flooding.
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