Weekend storm could be SoCal’s last rain for months
Rain and snow are returning to California and parts of the West, but significant drought relief remains unlikely for many areas in need.
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As the dry season nears, a storm sweeping across the interior West through Monday morning could be one of the last to deliver meaningful rainfall to coastal Southern California until fall. However, AccuWeather meteorologists say a lingering dip in the jet stream may bring one or two more opportunities throughout the first week of May.
Much of the precipitation from the storm — low-elevation rain showers and mountain snow showers — will be associated with a limited amount of Pacific moisture and a strengthening puddle of cold air in the upper levels of the atmosphere.
Despite the chance of some thunderstorm downpours scattered around the region through early this week, not enough rain is likely to fall to cause flash flooding or mudslides. However, a small amount of rain can create slick conditions on roads as water can mix with oils and other contaminants from vehicles.
"The rain expected through Monday morning will have little to no impact on the Southern California drought since the amounts will be rather low," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said.
Rainfall in Southern California tends to drop off dramatically during the months of April and May. For example, during April, downtown Los Angeles typically receives close to 0.70 of an inch of rain. However, during April, only 0.22 of an inch fell, which occurred, in total, on the 26th. During a typical May, only about 0.32 of an inch of rain falls on average, or less than half that of April.
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"The same storm could kick up winds over some of the high deserts into Monday, and that could be enough to trigger sporadic power outages," Merrill said.
There is still a chance of a similar style storm or two to bring the opportunity for some showers and thunderstorms through the first half of May.
"Water temperatures are still cooler than the historical average from Hawaii to Baja California, Mexico," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. The key here is that the cool water may hold back the routine large area of high pressure from developing in the far west, like we often see during the mid- to late spring. The development of high pressure will shut down shower activity and allow warmth and dry conditions to build across the West ahead of the North American monsoon.
Sierra Nevada snowpack — a key source of water for streams and reservoirs later in winter and spring — is currently between 75% and 85% of the historical average in the central and northern mountains. In the southern Sierra, snowpack levels drop to around 50% of normal.
The storm could bring repeated downpours to parts of the southern High Plains, thus easing drought problems there. However, it is also possible that too much of a good thing may occur, and excessive runoff leads to flash flooding.
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