Flooding risk into mid-May: Downpours to drench Oklahoma, Texas to Louisiana and Arkansas
The onslaught from heavy rain is not over for the South-Central states as more rounds are on the way that will bring renewed flooding in some locations and initiate flooding in others into mid-May.
AccuWeather Flood Expert Alex Sosnowski explains the emerging flood concerns that have led to growing concerns for the central U.S. as a result of heavy rainfall in the region as of May 2.
Big rain will gather again over a large portion of the south-central United States this week as a storm develops over the Southwest and crawls eastward over the southern Plains. AccuWeather meteorologists warn of flash flooding in urban areas and along small streams and flooding on multiple rivers in the region.
Much of the South Central states will get a break from rain this weekend, as the bulk of showers and severe thunderstorms focus in the East.
That will change in the upcoming week.
Showers and thunderstorms will first erupt over drought-stricken areas of New Mexico, southeastern Colorado and the western parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas from Sunday to Monday. However, even in these moisture-needy locations, there will be a risk of flash flooding.
As the storm crawls eastward, a plume of moisture is forecast to develop from the central parts of Texas and Oklahoma, before expanding eastward to portions of Arkansas and much of Louisiana throughout this week. Depending on the progression of dry air from the west, some areas could experience downpours over multiple days.
A general 4-8 inches of rain could fall with local amounts near 1 foot. Rainfall of this magnitude equals one to two months' worth of rain for May.
As streams and rivers fluctuate from prior rainfall through this weekend, the new rain could push water levels even higher and result in a surge of floodwater where there is no protection or river mitigation.
Dangerous rapid rises can occur on small streams and low water crossings in the weather setup. Those living along stretches of streams and rivers prone to flooding should closely monitor the situation from Texas and Oklahoma to Louisiana and Arkansas.
Some of the larger rivers in the region that should be watched for moderate to major flooding through next week include the Red River of the South, Trinity, Brazos, Canadian, Sulphur, Sabine and Arkansas. Some of the rivers may experience multiple crests and recessions into mid-May.
April was a wet month for a number of locations in the South Central states. Historic rainfall with major flooding occurred in portions of the Tennessee and Ohio valleys during the first week of the month. Rounds of heavy rain then shifted westward and focused farther to the west over the Ozarks and southern Plains throughout the rest of the month.
Oklahoma City finished April with 12.55 inches, or three and a half times the monthly average of 3.60 inches. Meanwhile, Wichita Falls, Texas, picked up 10.35 inches, compared to a historical average of 2.50 inches, making this total more than four times typical for the month.
By the time the heavy rain reaches the lower end of the Mississippi River, the major waterway will have crested throughout its stem, following the early April deluge upstream on the Ohio. If necessary, surging water from the Red River can be diverted away from the Mississippi at the Atchafalaya River Junction.
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