Severe storms to bring multiday, nighttime tornado risk in central US into next week
Thunderstorms with powerful wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes, will shift over portions of the central United States into this weekend and return before the middle of next week.
Video from Texas and Oklahoma shows severe storms sweeping through the region.
A busy stretch of thunderstorms is setting up across the central United States into the middle of next week, with a few rounds capable of significant severe weather. The risk will extend into the nighttime hours, which can be a particularly dangerous time for tornadoes.
Residents, visitors and motorists are urged to stay informed about the severe weather situation. As storms approach any airports, flight ground stops are likely to remain in place at departure and arrival locations until the danger has passed.
"One of the main ingredients for severe weather is wind outside of what thunderstorms produce," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "We will have strong winds in the lower and middle parts of the atmosphere into Friday night, adding extra energy into the equation."
Nocturnal storms, tornado risk stretches 1,000 miles Friday night
One such period will be from Friday evening through the overnight hours in a heavily populated zone along the Interstate 35 corridor, including Dallas; Oklahoma City; Wichita, Kansas; Kansas City, Missouri; and Des Moines, Iowa.
"The period from late Friday through Friday night is expected to be the most impactful period of this week,” Rayno said.
All modes of severe weather will be possible in thunderstorms across the zone during Friday night, extending from parts of central and western Texas northward to central Wisconsin and the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. This threat ranges from storms packing large hail and high winds to flash flooding and tornadoes.
While most storms in this zone will not bring tornadoes, a few twisters are forecast to form. A couple of the tornadoes that develop from near Dallas to central Iowa could reach beyond EF1 strength and might be on the ground for more than a couple of minutes.
Severe threat splits in two on Saturday afternoon, evening
On Saturday, thunderstorms are forecast to erupt as far north as southern Ontario and northern New York and as far south as the Gulf and the Rio Grande River along the Texas border with Mexico.
Two main zones will bring the highest chance of locally severe thunderstorms. One zone will stretch across Ohio as well as western Pennsylvania, western and central New York, southwestern Ontario, southeastern Michigan, part of West Virginia, northern Kentucky and eastern Indiana.
The storms in this northern zone may bring the first severe weather of the year to some areas, with strong wind gusts, hail and brief torrential downpours that can produce urban flooding.
Some thunderstorms will move across the Appalachians and into parts of the coastal Northeast late Saturday night and Sunday. However, these storms are not likely to be severe.
The second, southern component severe weather zone will stretch from western Tennessee to parts of South Texas and include the major cities of Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio, as well as Shreveport, Louisiana, Little Rock, Arkansas, Memphis, Tennessee, and Jackson, Mississippi.
Similar to the northern zone on Saturday, the main threats will be from strong wind gusts, hail and localized flash flooding.
While tornadoes are not highlighted as a significant threat for Saturday, severe thunderstorms can occasionally produce brief tornadoes. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust for Saturday in both zones is 75 mph, hurricane-strength. The risk of severe weather will extend a few hours past sunset in both zones.
Storms to ease up from Sunday to Monday
While a few thunderstorms in parts of Texas to Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas will be locally heavy and gusty from Sunday to Monday, most storms should remain below severe intensity.
The main impact from storms during this period will be from downpours that can lead to flooding, especially in parts of Texas and Louisiana.
Severe weather risk to return Tuesday and Wednesday
More rounds of severe weather are anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday of the new week. The severe weather threat is likely to extend well past dark and could include multiple tornadoes.
However, the extent and timing of the thunderstorms depend on the speed and strength of a storm that will be around the Southwest states and northwestern Mexico this weekend. The same storm will contribute to a Santa Ana wind event in Southern California this weekend.
If the storm is slower, the development of severe weather may be delayed or could be shifted farther west. If the storm is faster, severe weather may accelerate eastward.
The intensity of the storm system, combined with jet stream winds and a surge of warm, humid air from the Gulf, may be enough to unleash the first real outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes in portions of the South Central and Southeast states.
AccuWeather meteorologists tend to reserve the term "outbreak" to define the most potent severe weather events of the year, and next week is showing potential for such an event. The setup on Friday of this week could come close as well.
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