Tornado season: What forecasters expect for severe weather in 2026
Spring is severe weather season across the United States, and here's where AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes to erupt.
Find out what areas of the United States are most at risk for severe weather and tornadoes this spring.
The 2026 severe weather season is about to ramp up, and forecasters say that it may look different than last spring’s headline-grabbing tornado outbreaks.
“There may be fewer tornadoes reported compared to last year, but that does not mean this will be a quiet severe weather season,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex Duffus said. “There is an increased likelihood of severe thunderstorms packing damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. Flash flooding is a big concern this year.”
What’s different this year
Last spring delivered exceptional tornado activity, with nearly two-thirds of the year’s tornadoes occurring from March through May. This year, long-range forecasters expect tornado counts to be around the historical average, but the atmosphere may still favor repeated rounds of severe thunderstorms—especially storms capable of producing wind damage and flooding downpours.
A severe thunderstorm near Morton, Texas, on June 5, 2025. (Tony Laubach/AccuWeather)
A key factor is the expected quick exit of La Niña, which can reduce how often the atmosphere locks into classic tornado-producing setups. As La Niña conditions fade, weather patterns will be more conducive for thunderstorm development, raising the risks of large hail, winds over 60 mph and tornadoes.
Where storms could hit hardest
The most consistent corridor for severe weather episodes this spring is expected to set up in the typical areas from the eastern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley and western Ohio Valley, especially during March and April.
“Cooler air will likely limit severe weather farther in the northern Plains and Midwest until late April and May," Duffus explained. Part of this is linked to the icy waters of the Great Lakes. On Feb. 9, ice coverage on the Great Lakes reached 58%, the highest level since 2019 when 80% of the lakes were covered, according to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.
In the Northeast, severe thunderstorms may not arrive until May or early summer.
The main threats: wind damage and flash flooding
Even in years when tornado counts trend lower, severe storms can still deliver high-end impacts.
Straight-line winds can knock down trees and power lines, creating damage on a similar scale to tornadoes. In extreme cases, clusters of thunderstorms can grow into a derecho, producing widespread wind damage over hundreds of miles. Derechos are most common later spring and into summer.
Hail can also cause significant property damage, with losses that can top a billion dollars when storms hit densely populated areas. In 2026, the highest hail risk is expected from Texas to Alabama, with another hotspot around Iowa, northern Missouri, eastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas.
“Do not let your guard down this severe weather season,” Duffus warned. “Flash floods and damaging wind gusts can be just as destructive as tornadoes and often impact a much larger area. Tornado reports may trend lower than last year, but it only takes one storm striking a densely populated or vulnerable community to make this a devastating season.”
Tornado numbers: The range forecast for 2026
Long-range forecasters predict 1,050 to 1,250 tornadoes across the United States this year. That compares to 1,544 preliminary tornado reports in 2025. The historical average for tornadoes in the U.S. is 1,225.
Those numbers help set expectations for the season, but they don’t tell the full story. A single outbreak, or one tornado striking a populated area, can define a spring—regardless of how the final count compares to average.
Tornado activity will gradually ramp up as the spring progresses. In March, tornadoes are forecast to focus on an area from northern Georgia to Oklahoma and northward through most of Illinois.
By April, tornadoes will become more frequent, with most tornado-producing storms focusing on the Mississippi River Valley.
As the calendar turns to May, the focus will shift toward the traditional tornado alley, with areas from central Texas to eastern Nebraska facing the highest tornado risk.
Prepare now before storms ramp up
Severe weather season is one of the few hazards where preparation can pay off immediately.
•Identify the safest place to go at home, work and school
•Review how you’ll get warnings, especially overnight
•Restock basic emergency supplies (including backups for power outages)
•Make sure shelters and safe spaces are accessible and not cluttered
•Have a plan for pets and anyone who needs extra time to move to safety
