Wildfire season could ramp up early in 2026 as drought covers over 40% of the US

The spring weather pattern is lining up to dry fuels faster than usual in key areas, causing the wildfire risk to escalate early. Here’s where the risk is highest and what could make it spike.

More than 40% of the United States is experiencing drought heading into spring, and that dryness, combined with warmer-than-average conditions, is setting the stage for an active start to wildfire season in parts of the country.

AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham says the most concerning areas this spring will stretch from the interior West into the Plains, with additional pockets of elevated risk across Florida and parts of the mid-Atlantic.

Here’s where wildfire danger will be greatest:

Four Corners face the greatest fire threat in spring

Conditions across the Four Corners have been exceptionally dry and warm this winter, with record low snowpack reported in some areas and long-term drought firmly in place. That combination raises concerns about early fuel drying before the landscape has a chance to green up.

"Across the nation this spring, the Four Corners region and the adjacent Front Range [and] High Plains are expected to feature the highest risk for wildfire activity," Buckingham said.

Above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation are expected to persist across this region through much of spring. When strong wind events develop, especially before widespread vegetation growth, fire danger can escalate quickly.

Below-average snowfall will also cause wildfire concerns in Montana, Idaho and Wyoming. Storms in March should help limit early-season fire risk, but drier conditions in April and May could allow fuels to dry earlier than the historical average.

In California, a few storms late in the winter can help offset some short-term dryness, but fire concerns will increase by May. Higher humidity will help reduce the fire threat along the coast, but any wind events could briefly spike the risk. AccuWeather will provide a more detailed breakdown of the 2026 California wildfire forecast later in the spring season.

Wind-driven fire danger to rise in Plains

Temperatures have been above to well above average across much of the central and southern Plains this winter, while drought has expanded and intensified. When fronts move through with gusty winds, it will create prime conditions for fast-moving fires.

"The western halves of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and eastern Colorado will likely face a moderate to high risk for wildfire activity through the spring season, particularly during windy periods preceding green-up," Buckingham explained.

Farther north in the Dakotas and part of Montana, late-season snow will help to suppress overall wildfire risk compared to areas farther south.

Florida at risk, mid-Atlantic to face concerns before green-up

The wildfire risk is not expected to be as widespread in the eastern U.S. as in other regions of the country, but there will be pockets where fires could break out when conditions align.

Florida stands out as the area of greatest concern, in part due to winter freezes that may have damaged smaller vegetation, adding to the availability of fuels.

"Florida and portions of the Southeast are expected to face the highest wildfire risk across the region due to ongoing drought and the climatological tendency for dry stretches prior to the onset of the summer rainy season," Buckingham explained.

In the mid-Atlantic, drought remains entrenched in some areas despite winter snow cover. The highest risk of wildfires will likely occur after the snow melts, the ground dries out, and before trees and vegetation begin to leaf out.

As spring progresses and vegetation emerges, near to above-average precipitation should help keep overall fire danger near seasonal levels, though brief periods of elevated risk are possible on dry, windy days.

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