March springlike surge to foster severe storms, heavy rain from Texas to Michigan and Ohio
A shifting jet stream will send multiple storms from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, unleashing severe weather, heavy rain and rising stream and river levels in some areas, while drought persists in others.
AccuWeather Long Range Expert Joe Lundberg looks ahead to next week, particularly from March 5-11. From Texas to the Ohio Valley, there is a rising concern for the risk of severe weather and flooding.
A clash between winter and spring will unfold starting next week as an active storm track sets up from Texas to the Great Lakes. Multiple storms riding along this corridor will bring rounds of rain, thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather across parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley into early March. While the pattern may ease drought in some communities, it could also trigger flooding in others.
After more rounds of snow and ice sweep from the Midwest to the Northeast into early next week, the storm track will shift later in the week.
A pronounced southward dip in the jet stream will develop over the western United States, while a northward bulge builds in the East. This configuration will create an atmospheric highway between the two features, steering multiple storms northeastward from Texas and the southern Plains.
This pattern will allow warm, moist air from the Gulf to surge northward across much of the Plains and Mississippi Valley. As storms move through, they will tap into that moisture while colder air presses in behind them, leading to repeated rounds of downpours and thunderstorms.
"The setup will be favorable for rounds of severe weather from Texas and Louisiana northeastward into the middle Mississippi and Ohio valleys," said AccuWeather Senior Long-Range Meteorologist Joe Lundberg.
"The scope and intensity of the severe weather will depend on the strength and timing of each storm system," Lundberg added. "Each system could behave differently."
On Wednesday, there will be some risk of severe weather, including the potential for a few tornadoes from southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri through central and eastern Oklahoma, the western border of Arkansas and north-central to part of northeastern Texas.
Heavy rainfall from repeated thunderstorms could lead to localized urban flooding. Given the significant drought gripping much of the region, much of the rain will be beneficial as the first round or two of rain will largely be absorbed by the landscape.
However, as the pattern continues through next week and perhaps beyond, the risk of more regional flash flooding will increase, and some significant rises on the secondary rivers may be possible.
While the Central states turn wetter, the Southeast may receive limited rainfall next week. A high-pressure system building over the western Atlantic and extending into the Southeast will act as a buffer, deflecting heavier rainfall away from the region.
Recent dry weather has caused drought to spread across 100 percent of Florida, with 67 percent of the state experiencing extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
"Following some short-term rain to end the week in parts of the Southeast, there may be few opportunities for rain through much of the first half of March," Lundberg said. "Drought conditions may worsen, and the risk of wildfires may increase in the long range as a result in the Southeast."
How consistently warm air reaches the Northeast in March remains uncertain, as an atmospheric blocking pattern near Greenland may develop. This setup could allow cold air to push back into the region at times.
However, the pattern will also bring periodic warmups to the Upper Midwest and Northeast. If these thaws coincide with rainfall, the risk of ice jams and river flooding could increase next week.
Some of the heaviest rainfall in months across the Mississippi Basin, combined with snowmelt in parts of the Plains and Midwest, will cause water levels to rise along the Ohio, Missouri and mainstem Mississippi rivers in the coming weeks.
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