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No rest for the weary: Downpours, gusty storms sweeping through waterlogged South

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated Mar 31, 2021 9:43 AM EDT

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The same line of storms that brought devastating flooding to Nashville on Sunday resulted in cracks of lightning throughout the region.

Mere days after record rainfall triggered widespread flooding across the Nashville metro area, downpours have returned to soaked portions of the South, along with the threat for locally severe thunderstorms. Behind the wet weather, forecasters say that big changes are on the way.

More than half a foot of rain fell in Nashville over the weekend, which pushed the city's month-to-date precipitation tally to 10.91 inches, or 265% of the March average of 4.11 inches. As of early Wednesday morning, Nashville had measured an additional 1.25 inches of rainfall, putting the month-to-date total at 12.16 inches, just under the wettest March ever of 12.35 inches set in 1975.

Elsewhere across the South, cities such as Memphis, Tennessee; Tupelo, Mississippi; and Birmingham, Alabama; have received around 150-180% of average rainfall for the month of March.

The region is enduring one final thorough soaking before a much-needed dry stretch commences.

Heavy rain, as indicated by the yellow and red shadings, is seen on radar across portions of the Southeast and Ohio Valley early Wednesday morning, March 31, 2021. (AccuWeather)

"Moisture surging northward out of the Gulf of Mexico has met up with a cold front charging southward," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike LeSeney said. This resulted in showers and thunderstorms breaking out across Arkansas, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky during Tuesday night.

Rain arrived in the Memphis, Tennessee, area on Tuesday afternoon, later prompting a flash flooding warning for the metro area, due to the saturated nature of the ground. This warning has since been allowed to expire.

Downpours will continue to spread southeastward with the front through the day on Wednesday.

"The rainfall may be heavy which could result in new or worsening flooding problems," LeSeney said.

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Runoff from the downpours can send a new surge of water into local streams and rivers that are already swollen. In addition, the rainfall will act to slow recovery efforts from not only the weekend flooding, but also the recent severe weather and tornado outbreaks.

Even in the absence of renewed flooding problems, downpours can create travel slowdowns for motorists along interstates 20, 40, 55 and 65 due to reduced visibility and ponding of water on the roadway.

Unlike weather systems in recent weeks which spawned dozens of tornadoes and widespread swaths of wind damage across the South, AccuWeather meteorologists do not anticipate a large-scale outbreak of severe weather around the middle part of the week. However, there may be some localized risks to contend with for any stronger thunderstorms embedded within the downpours.

"Any thunderstorms kicked up by the cold front may turn severe," LeSeney said.

During Tuesday night, a few tornado warnings were issued in northern Mississippi. The town of Vardaman was under a tornado-warned storm that reportedly damaged a school building and several buses. There has been no confirmed tornado with this storm as of early Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, torrential downpours and locally damaging storms may extend from Louisiana to the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

Damaging winds and hail, along with torrential downpours, are likely to be the greatest risks associated with any stronger thunderstorms, but there is also the chance for an isolated tornado.

Behind the cold front, Mother Nature will pull what may seem like its own April Fools' Day prank across the South as unseasonably chilly air plunges into the region on Thursday. High temperatures will be 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for the latter part of the week, generally in the 50s and lower 60s, with lows expected to plummet to frosty and freezing levels.

The good news is that the colder, drier air will shut off the potential for rain and thunderstorms across the Southeast late this week, and many areas may remain rain-free through much of the first full week of April.

Related:

Nashville flooding turned deadly after severe storms tear across South
Weather a factor: Top 5 places remote workers moved in 2020
February-like blast to send temps crashing in Northeast
Temperatures plunge in North Central states following drastic warmup

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.

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