Multiday severe weather risk across the central US, with the biggest threat Sunday-Monday
Daily severe thunderstorms could evolve into an outbreak over the Plains and Midwest into next week, bringing damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes and flash flooding that could disrupt travel and outdoor plans.
After a few days of subdued weather in the Midwest and Plains, the threat for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is about to shoot back up from May 15-18.
Thunderstorms will become more widespread and intense across the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and the Midwest into next week, interfering with travel, graduations and outdoor plans and putting lives and property at risk. Threat levels continue to rise following speculation earlier this week, with at least one high-risk day on Monday.
The main threats from developing severe thunderstorms will be high winds, hail and frequent lightning, but stronger thunderstorms could spin up tornadoes. Torrential downpours may go beyond providing drought relief and instead lead to flash flooding in urban areas and along small streams.
AccuWeather’s severe weather classification is impact-driven and differs from the Storm Prediction Center’s system, with a focus on clarity for the general public.
The period from Sunday into Monday is forecast to see a severe weather outbreak, with hundreds of incidents of strong wind gusts and multiple tornadoes.
Saturday
On Saturday, a risk of severe weather will extend along a 1,000-mile swath from southeastern Wyoming to western Kentucky. A few tornadoes will be possible with the strongest storms, along with straight-line wind gusts of 70-80 mph and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 90 mph.
A vast area of some risk of severe weather on Saturday will include 10 states, and the major metro of Indianapolis. A more concentrated zone of severe thunderstorms will extend across a large part of Nebraska, western Iowa and parts of northern Kansas and Missouri. Omaha, Lincoln, Des Moines and Grand Island, Nebraska, are within this more concentrated zone of severe weather.
Sunday
The severe weather threat will continue on Sunday with the potential to intensify over part of the central U.S., with a concentrated area of powerful storms around eastern Nebraska, eastern South Dakota, southwestern Minnesota and western Iowa. AccuWeather is predicting a moderate risk of damaging storms and tornadoes. But its experts are considering upgrading to a high risk, with the potential for hundreds of high-wind incidents and perhaps a dozen or more tornadoes.
Some of the tornadoes on Sunday could be strong or long-tracked.
A broader zone of severe weather is predicted from northern Texas to northeastern Colorado and then into Minnesota and Wisconsin, with risks including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.
Monday
"Monday may bring the greatest risk of severe weather and tornadoes in more than a week to the Central states," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. An outbreak of severe weather is anticipated.
AccuWeather meteorologists are raising the severe weather threat level to "high" from part of central Kansas to a portion of central Iowa from Monday to Monday night. This means that severe thunderstorms are expected to be widespread in this zone.
Monday's threat of severe weather will extend for 1,200 miles from northwest of San Antonio, Texas, to Marquette, Michigan, located on the shores of Lake Superior. Within this broad severe weather zone spanning nearly a dozen states, some areas may experience more numerous and dangerous storms.
The severe weather threat on Monday includes the major metro areas of Oklahoma City, Dallas, Kansas City, Omaha, St. Louis, Des Moines, Chicago, Minneapolis and Milwaukee.
Tuesday
The severe weather threat will then continue into Tuesday, though likely not as severe as it was on Sunday and Monday. Storms capable of severe weather will move east, with a zone stretching from near Wichita Falls, Texas, up into Michigan and southern Ontario having the risk of damaging wind gusts and flooding downpours once more.
The severe weather threat on Tuesday includes the major metro areas of Oklahoma City and St. Louis and will also extend to include Chicago and Detroit.
Some risk of severe weather will push into parts of the Appalachians and the Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday.
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As the number of severe thunderstorms ramps up and storms move into the Midwest's and the East's denser network of major airport hubs, flight delays and cancellations will increase next week.
Flash flood risk to increase
Along with severe weather, there is a likelihood of torrential downpours in the thunderstorm zone. At the start of the weekend, thunderstorms will be spotty, along with downpours, so the risk of flash flooding will be localized.
As the pattern evolves and a deeper plume of moisture extends northward from the Gulf, more numerous thunderstorms are forecast with a greater chance of repeated torrential downpours.
As storm coverage and frequency increase, the risk of flash flooding will also rise in urban areas and along small streams, regardless of drought conditions.
There is a likelihood of 1-4 inches of rain to fall over a several-day period from central Texas to northern Michigan with locally higher amounts. A significant amount of that rain may fall in a few hours on some communities.
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