Stormy winter with higher heating bills expected for millions of Americans

AccuWeather® Global Weather Center – Oct. 2, 2025 - AccuWeather® long-range experts say the approaching winter season will be stormy for millions of people across the upper Midwest and Central United States.

> Overall below-historical average winter temperatures are likely across parts of 17 states in the Plains and Midwest

> Season snow totals are predicted to be above the historical average across parts of the Midwest and Northwest; below-average snow is likely across much of the East Coast

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"It looks to be an intense and stormy winter for certain areas of the country, particularly across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast and parts of the mid-Atlantic," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist PaulPastelok said.

Meteorological winter starts on Monday, Dec. 1. Astronomical winter begins on the solstice, which will happen at 10:03 a.m. EST on Dec. 21.
 

Snowy winter on tap for millions

The AccuWeather 2025-2026 US Winter Forecast predicts a ‘bookend’ winter for the central and eastern U.S., with the biggest storms expected around the opening and the final weeks of the season.

Early season storms will likely track from Canada into the Midwest before pushing toward the mid-Atlantic and New England. Some storms could strengthen into nor’easters. By late winter, the storm track is expected to shift, bringing systems from the Plains and Mississippi Valley into the Appalachians, Midwest and Northeast.

• Snowfall is projected to be higher than last winter in parts of the Northeast, including Philadelphia, New York City and Boston. Seasonal snow totals may still fall below the historical average as storms during mid- to late winter may produce a mix of rain and snow rather than just snow.

• A snowy winter is predicted across portions of the Midwest, a swath from the Plains to the Ohio Valley, and areas of Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana.

• December could be especially active around the Great Lakes, where blasts of cold air will fuel heavy lake-effect snow.

• Buffalo, New York, is forecast to receive 90–100 inches of snow, close to its historical average. More than 77 inches of snow was measured in Buffalo last winter.

Temperature trends and heating demand

AccuWeather long-range experts say heating bills could run high this winter, especially where below historical average temperatures are expected in the Plains and Midwest.

“Minneapolis to the Chicago suburbs and areas north of Kansas City could have the coldest air overall this winter. This area could be hit with multiple blasts of frigid air,” Pastelok said. “The demand for heating will likely be well above average in the upper Midwest this winter. Heating bills could get quite high for a lot of people this winter.”

• Cold will take hold early in December before easing in January, when a brief thaw is likely. With the absence of an Arctic dry air mass, there may be more opportunities for snow.

• Winter is forecast to return in force by February; frigid air can expand across the central and eastern U.S.

• Cold air intrusions will likely be less frequent and less intense overall across the southern United States. A major blast of Arctic air remains possible in the South in late winter. A pattern shift around late January or early February could open the door for "significant cold air" to sweep into Texas and the Gulf Coast, which could lead to some snow and ice.

• The highest potential for the polar vortex to shift south and unleash some of the coldest air of the season across North America will be in late January or February.

• Heating demand is expected to be below average across many eastern, southern and western states this winter, but people and businesses may see more expensive bills due to rising energy costs.

Warmth in the Pacific impacts weather in the West

AccuWeather long-range experts say winter weather across the West coast and Rocky Mountains will be directly linked to a marine heat wave that has water temperatures running much higher than the historical average across the northern Pacific Ocean.

"These waters off the West Coast and extending across the northern Pacific are very important going into our winter forecast this year," Pastelok explained. "If sea surface temperatures remain above normal just off the West Coast for much of the winter season, temperature departures can be higher and precipitation much lower in the Northwest."

• AccuWeather long-range experts say there have not been many winter seasons in recent decades that have had a similar setup across such a vast area of the ocean.

• The warm, dry pattern will be most pronounced across California and the Southwest, where worsening drought and the risk of out-of-season wildfires are expected.

• Some storms will reach the Northwest and northern Rockies in December, helping to build snowpack in the Cascades, Rockies and parts of the northern Sierra.

• Fewer atmospheric rivers are expected this winter compared to last season, especially for California.

• The best opportunities for rainfall in Southern California and the Southwest are expected in January as the storm track dips south, but the storms that do unfold are unlikely to erase extreme drought conditions.

• The storm track will retreat north by February, leaving most of California and the Southwest warm and dry.

• The weather pattern and storm track shifts expected this winter will likely set the stage for worsening drought across the West coast and Rocky Mountains into 2026.

"If the pattern becomes quite amplified, then near-record high temperatures are possible," Pastelok said.

La Niña condition impacts

One of the biggest factors that AccuWeather long-range experts considers when creating the U.S. winter forecast is whether there will be a La Niña or El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. These are regular, large-scale climate phenomena that can influence weather patterns across North America, especially during the winter months.

• A La Niña Watch has been issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

• La Niña occurs when the water near the equator in the Pacific Ocean is cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures for at least five consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. This is the opposite of El Niño when water in this region is warmer. Both can have a significant influence on the way storms tracks develop across North America, especially during the winter.

• Even if La Niña does not officially develop, some aspects of the winter weather can resemble a season when La Niña is present, such as the warmer weather expected across the southern tier of the country. However, a weak La Niña would open the door for other factors that can alter the overall weather patterns throughout the winter.

Additional AccuWeather® Resources:

Winter forecast 2025-26: Snowy season ahead for parts of the US

What could La Niña mean for hurricanes and winter?

Winter is coming: earliest and latest average 80-degree days in US cities

Can woolly bear caterpillars predict winter weather?

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