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News / Winter Weather

Can woolly bear caterpillars predict winter weather?

According to folklore, these critters can predict how cold and snowy the upcoming winter will be. Here's the truth behind the stripes.

By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Aug 4, 2026 9:42 AM EDT

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One year after Hurricane Helene, Banner Elk’s beloved Woolly Worm Festival returns—raising money for local kids with worm races, winter folklore, and small-town grit.

Move over, Punxsutawney Phil. There's a new weather prognosticator in the animal kingdom that is getting the attention of snow-lovers across the United States.

Woolly Bear caterpillars are starting to emerge, and according to folklore, their colors can predict what type of winter is ahead.

•Black bands: If a woolly bear is mostly black, it indicates a longer, colder and snowier winter is ahead.
•Brown bands: If the middle brown band is large, then the upcoming winter will not be as cold or snowy.

A woolly bear caterpillar crawling over tree branch. (Getty Images/Jacob Tian)

However, this long-standing belief is more myth than fact, as the colors are connected to the caterpillar's diet, as opposed to its forecasting prowess.

"The woolly bear caterpillar's coloring is based on how long [the] caterpillar has been feeding, its age, and species," the National Weather Service explained. "The better the growing season is the bigger it will grow. This results in narrower red-orange bands in its middle."

A woolly bear caterpillar, the larval stage of the Isabella tiger moth, clings to the tip of a finger in the garden. (Getty Images/Kimberly A White)

In fact, there can be multiple woolly bears in the same area that have stripes of various lengths, an example of the inconsistency when trying to correlate their colors to the winter weather ahead.

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