Meteorologists monitoring for tropical development near India
By
Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published May 5, 2020 5:12 PM EDT
Nearly continuous lightning lit up the night sky in Fayetteville, Arkansas, on Monday night, May 4.
AccuWeather meteorologists continue to monitor a slow-moving tropical low for development over the Bay of Bengal, and depending on the track it takes, the tropical system could bring impacts to areas from southern India to Bangladesh this week.
Although development is not expected early this week, this low is expected to bring periods of tropical downpours that can increase the risk of flash flooding and mudslides to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Northern Sumatra also received heavy rainfall late last week, and Banda Aceh totaled 11.89 inches (302 mm) from Thursday to Sunday.
This system is expected to drift west-northwest, away from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands by midweek.
As the low drifts over the southern Bay of Bengal early this week, it will be over warm water and in an area of low wind shear. These are two crucial ingredients needed for tropical development.
"Strengthening of this low will likely be very slow and is expected to hold off until late this week or the weekend," said AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls.
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"[AccuWeather meteorologists] are leaning toward the possibility of the low becoming a depression over the Bay of Bengal, but the exact track remains unclear," Nicholls said.
The track of the system after it passes the Andaman and Nicobar islands will help to determine how much it is able to strengthen.
"The two most likely scenarios consist of the system tracking to the west towards southern India or curving to the north toward northeastern India and Bangladesh," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
A turn to the north will give the low more time over water and allow further strengthening, possibly into a deep depression and a cyclonic storm. However, strengthening of the system will not go unchecked.
"As the system moves farther to the north, wind shear will increase across the central and northern Bay of Bengal, which should limit how intense the system can get," Douty explained.
This track would bring a greater threat to coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. A track far enough north could also threaten Bangladesh.
There remains a chance that the system will track more to the west into southern India early next week. On this track, however, it is more likely to remain weak.
This westerly track would bring soaking showers and thunderstorms to Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
It is not uncommon for tropical systems to develop in the Bay of Bengal or Andaman Sea during the beginning of May. Tropical activity usually increases before the arrival of India's Southwest monsoon.
"The northern Indian Ocean tropical season officially is boundless, meaning tropical cyclones can form anytime of year. However, the northern Indian Ocean tropical season has two peaks. The first peak is from April to June, or pre-monsoon, and the second peak spans from September into December, or post-monsoon," added Nicholls.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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News / Hurricane
Meteorologists monitoring for tropical development near India
By Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published May 5, 2020 5:12 PM EDT
Nearly continuous lightning lit up the night sky in Fayetteville, Arkansas, on Monday night, May 4.
AccuWeather meteorologists continue to monitor a slow-moving tropical low for development over the Bay of Bengal, and depending on the track it takes, the tropical system could bring impacts to areas from southern India to Bangladesh this week.
Although development is not expected early this week, this low is expected to bring periods of tropical downpours that can increase the risk of flash flooding and mudslides to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Northern Sumatra also received heavy rainfall late last week, and Banda Aceh totaled 11.89 inches (302 mm) from Thursday to Sunday.
This system is expected to drift west-northwest, away from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands by midweek.
As the low drifts over the southern Bay of Bengal early this week, it will be over warm water and in an area of low wind shear. These are two crucial ingredients needed for tropical development.
"Strengthening of this low will likely be very slow and is expected to hold off until late this week or the weekend," said AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
"[AccuWeather meteorologists] are leaning toward the possibility of the low becoming a depression over the Bay of Bengal, but the exact track remains unclear," Nicholls said.
The track of the system after it passes the Andaman and Nicobar islands will help to determine how much it is able to strengthen.
"The two most likely scenarios consist of the system tracking to the west towards southern India or curving to the north toward northeastern India and Bangladesh," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
A turn to the north will give the low more time over water and allow further strengthening, possibly into a deep depression and a cyclonic storm. However, strengthening of the system will not go unchecked.
"As the system moves farther to the north, wind shear will increase across the central and northern Bay of Bengal, which should limit how intense the system can get," Douty explained.
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This track would bring a greater threat to coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. A track far enough north could also threaten Bangladesh.
There remains a chance that the system will track more to the west into southern India early next week. On this track, however, it is more likely to remain weak.
This westerly track would bring soaking showers and thunderstorms to Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
It is not uncommon for tropical systems to develop in the Bay of Bengal or Andaman Sea during the beginning of May. Tropical activity usually increases before the arrival of India's Southwest monsoon.
"The northern Indian Ocean tropical season officially is boundless, meaning tropical cyclones can form anytime of year. However, the northern Indian Ocean tropical season has two peaks. The first peak is from April to June, or pre-monsoon, and the second peak spans from September into December, or post-monsoon," added Nicholls.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo