Melissa to brush Atlantic Canada with high winds, heavy rain
As Melissa accelerates northeastward over the western Atlantic, its next encounter will be with the southeastern part of Newfoundland packing torrential rain, high winds and heavy seas.
As Melissa tracks northward through the Atlantic, it has passed west of Bermuda and will track near Atlantic Canada.
With the Caribbean, the Bahamas and now Bermuda in Melissa's rearview mirror, the next encounter with land will be in part of the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador from Friday night to Saturday morning. Impacts will be significant, even if the center stays just offshore, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
Melissa still has a long journey ahead, with an Eye Path® that will take it close enough to Atlantic Canada to bring a period of high winds, heavy rain and rough seas. It has transitioned into a tropical wind and rainstorm as it moved into the colder waters of the far North Atlantic Ocean.
Melissa is now moving away from Bermuda at a quickening pace. In addition to traveling into slightly cooler waters over the western Atlantic, relative to the Caribbean, the hurricane will battle increased wind shear (strong winds at various levels of the atmosphere) as it races along in the coming days, leading to a further loss of wind intensity.
Seas north and west of Bermuda will remain rough into Friday night. Wave heights will generally range from 10-20 feet, with higher rogue waves possible.
Melissa to eye land once again: Impacts expected in Atlantic Canada
Upon Melissa's approach to Atlantic Canada from Friday night to Saturday morning, there will be an increased risk for flooding, gusty winds and localized power outages, especially on the large island of Newfoundland.
A southward dip in the jet stream will be a key factor in how far west Melissa tracks. At this time, Melissa's center is forecast to track less than two dozen miles of the southeastern tip of Newfoundland, known as Cape Race.
"As Melissa speeds through the northwest Atlantic late this week, it will pass perilously close to Newfoundland, Canada. A small shift in the track could bring the center of the storm over land, with hurricane-force wind gusts for several hours Friday night, along with a period of heavy rain," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg.
Lundberg added that there is also a risk for coastal flooding and high waves.
The current forecast calls for at least 1-2 inches of rain across the region later this week, with winds upwards of 60 mph in coastal cities like St. John's. In the southeastern part of the Avalon Peninsula on the island of Newfoundland, wind gusts of 60-80 mph are forecast with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust of 90 mph.
"Historically, with storms that make it this far north to Atlantic Canada, the strongest winds are likely to be concentrated along the eastern side of the storm," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
Melissa to journey across the North Atlantic
By the weekend and early next week, energy from Melissa is projected to transition to a tropical wind and rainstorm over the open waters of the North Atlantic, gradually becoming non-tropical upon its approach to the Faroe Islands, Iceland and the northern part of the United Kingdom.
AccuWeather meteorologists convey that the closer Melissa tracks to Atlantic Canada, the higher the chances will be for it to be influenced by a separate storm that will be positioned across eastern Canada by late week and therefore less of a notable entity in the far Northern Atlantic around the United Kingdom. This is the same "Halloween storm" to usher in chilly rain and brisk conditions to the northeastern U.S. later this week, forecasters note.
While rain and showers may surround the rainstorm before it dissipates northwest of the U.K. early next week, forecasters are not anticipating notable impacts on the region at this time.
AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor the tropical Atlantic. The Caribbean seems to be the most likely spot for additional tropical storm development in the coming weeks.
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