Ian contributing to raw, miserable weather weekend for the Northeast
Long after its second landfall in the United States, Ian will continue to unleash impacts as a tropical rainstorm hundreds of miles farther inland up the spine of the Appalachians and into parts of the Northeast. AccuWeather forecasters say that Ian will also play a role in the development of a new coastal storm that can prolong the effects and cause strong winds, above-normal tides, beach erosion and disruptive downpours, which will be accompanied by a notable chill in the air.
With all of those factors weighed in, AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting downright miserable and raw conditions that will persist into early week for some places in the Northeast.
AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno noted on Friday that Ian's appearance on satellite looked more and more like a powerful nor'easter as tropical-storm-force winds extended from Jacksonville, Florida, to Norfolk, Virginia. By Saturday, rain from the once powerful hurricane sprawled from parts of the central Appalachians to southeastern New England.
This radar image from midday Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022, shows rain from Ian dampening portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast New England. (AccuWeather)
Most of the wind energy from Ian has dissipated as the storm's center continues its trek inland. However, pockets of gusty winds capable of knocking down trees and triggering sporadic power outages can occur as far inland as West Virginia and as far to the north along the coast as New Jersey and Long Island, New York, due to interaction with an old frontal zone.
That same front, which will mark the boundary between dry air to the north and tropical moisture to the south, will lead to a secondary pulse of heavy rain in the mid-Atlantic region for a time for the rest of this weekend. There is the potential for incidents of urban flooding along a portion of the Interstate-95 corridor as a result of these pockets of drenching rain.
"The combination of a strong area of high pressure over northern New England and lingering low pressure associated with Ian will create stiff east to northeast winds in coastal areas of the Northeast that will last for days," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
"This action will lead to above-normal tides, coastal flooding, beach erosion and dangerous surf conditions from northeastern North Carolina to eastern Massachusetts," Lundberg added. Areas prone to taking on water during wintertime nor'easters such as Wildwood, New Jersey, and Norfolk, Virginia, will likely experience similar conditions into the first half of this week.
Some of the energy left over from Ian over the central Appalachians late this weekend will transfer to the mid-Atlantic coast early in the new week. This transfer is likely to help spin up a brand new area of non-tropical low pressure just offshore.
The impacts of the new storm will be three-fold. One will be to prolong the above-normal tides and their effects. Another will be to bring a second pulse of rain from portions of Virginia to southeastern New York state and southern New England. Additionally, winds may increase for a time as that new storm strengthens.
An area of high pressure sitting to the north will combine forces with the coastal storm, helping to funnel in high winds. Add that to the rainy conditions, and it will make for raw and chilly conditions for many days in the Northeast, especially where rain is pouring down into the coming week. AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures can dip into the 40s and even the 30s at times, a likely reminder to people who live in the region that Old Man Winter is not that far away.
Speaking of winter, the next round of cooler weather is brewing.
"We are tracking a new burst of chilly air that will arrive by next weekend in the Northeast," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "An Alberta clipper storm associated with that chilly push could trigger the season's first snow for some in northern New England."
Meanwhile, elsewhere in the tropics, AccuWeather's long-range team will be monitoring a couple of new candidates that could become the next named systems in the Atlantic. One such disturbance is projected to enter the Caribbean during the second weekend of October and will be watched for development shortly thereafter. The next two names on the list of tropical storms for the 2022 season are Julia and Karl.
Meanwhile, well to the south of where relentless stormy weather associated with Ian and the secondary storm will set up, people picking up the pieces in devastated areas of Florida will experience mainly dry and warm conditions into the first week of October.
The combination of warmth and sunshine may assist with recovery and cleanup operations in Florida, but these conditions can be hard on some individuals struggling with the lack of electricity and without a means to keep cool.
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