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Dual tropical depressions threaten storm-weary areas of the West Pacific

By Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist & Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Nov 6, 2020 1:56 PM EDT

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Villages in the Philippines were underwater and covered in mud on Nov. 1, after Typhoon Goni battered the country.

While Atsani was dissipating over the South China Sea, more tropical activity was brewing in the West Pacific Basin as two tropical depressions formed over the weekend.

After passing to the north of the Philippines last week, Atsani delivered a heavy blow to southern Taiwan on Friday. This storm brought heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the island before rapidly weakening into Sunday morning, local time.

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Meanwhile, the first threat arrived across the Philippines on Saturday when a tropical low developed into a tropical depression to the south of Legazpi City as it moved over southern Luzon. The depression is known as Tonyo in the Philippines.

The storm brought a quick 50 mm (2 inches) of rain to southern Luzon, which led to flash flooding in low-lying and poor drainage locations, while gusty winds led to hazardous boating conditions.

By Sunday night, local time, the depression strengthened into a tropical storm and was given the name Etau by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

On Monday, Etau is forecast to race westward across the South China Sea in an environment that will limit any additional strengthening. Relatively cool water and moderate wind shear will make it difficult for Etau to reach typhoon strength, or sustained winds of at least 119 km/h (74 mph).

Regardless of exact intensity, more tropical rainfall and strong wind gusts are expected in storm-weary parts of Vietnam.

According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Bowers, Etau will bring widespread rainfall totals of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) to central and southern Vietnam, southern Laos and Cambodia through Wednesday.

"Higher rainfall totals on the order of 200-300 mm (8-12 inches) will mainly target the south-central coast and the central highlands. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ 450 mm (18 inches) will be most likely in these areas," he added.

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This amount of rainfall can trigger mudslides, renew flooding and create additional washouts in an area that is still recovering from previous tropical systems. Due to the saturated soil, it will be even easier for this impacts to occur.

In addition to flooding rainfall, strong winds are expected as Etau makes landfall over Vietnam.

In additional to flooding rainfall, wind gusts of 64-96 km/h (40-60 mph) can occur near and to the north of where Etau makes landfall. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 129 km/h (80 mph) is possible near the center of the storm.

Due to the expected impacts from heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts in an area that has faced multiple tropical systems in recent weeks, Etau is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Tropical Cyclones. The RealImpact™ Scale is a 6-point scale with ratings of less than one and 1 to 5 that used to classify tropical systems based on wind speed, rainfall amounts, coastal flooding as well as economic factors.

Central and southern Vietnam have been the target of multiple tropical systems during October which has led to widespread flooding and mudslides. Additional rain from Etau can exacerbate flooding and slow recovery efforts.

The heaviest rain from Etau is expected to fall along the central and southern coast between Hue and Phan Thiet, which includes some areas just hit by Tropical Depression Goni late this week. In Quang Ngai, 261 mm (10.28 inches) of rain fell as a result of the storm.

Soldiers and villagers dig through mud after a landslide swamps a village in Phuoc Loc district, Quang Nam province, Vietnam, on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020. Three separated landslides triggered by typhoon Molave killed over a dozen villagers and left dozens more missing in the province as rescuers scramble to recover more victims. (Lai Minh Dong/VNA via AP)

Unfortunately, Etau may not be the last system to impact the northern Philippines in the coming days.

A broad area of low pressure over the Philippine Sea developed into a tropical depression near Palau on Sunday night, local time, and is known locally as Ulysses.

This depression is forecast to track to the west and northwest in the general direction of the northern Philippines and has the potential to bring more rain and wind to the already hard-hit region.

In the final week of October, two dangerous typhoons, Molave and Goni, struck the Philippines. So far, almost four dozen deaths have been attributed to the destructive duo.

Atsani, known as Siony in the Philippines, first developed on Oct. 29, the same day that ferocious Typhoon Goni struck the Philippines. After stalling across the Philippine Sea early in the week, Atsani tracked to the west and passed to the north of the Philippines.

On this track, the storm brought 268 mm (10.55 inches) of rain and wind gusts of 76-87 km/h (47-54 mph) to southern Taiwan on Friday.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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