Tropical Rainstorm Threatens Gulf Coast with Flooding Rains This Week
AccuWeather hurricane experts are tracking a developing tropical rainstorm that is poised to bring dangerous flooding downpours across Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast, including southern Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, this week.
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AccuWeather forecasters are expecting a tropical rainstorm to cause flash flooding problems in Florida before crossing into the Gulf and strengthening into a depression near Louisiana.
A Brewing System with Serious Impacts
Although the system may not officially develop into a tropical storm and receive a name, AccuWeather meteorologists are warning that it could still bring significant rainfall, flooding, and wind-related hazards. “This system may not strengthen into a tropical storm and be designated with an official name, but it could cause some serious flooding issues this week. There are signs of slow organization happening right now off the coast of Florida in the Atlantic,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s Lead Hurricane Expert.
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The area of low pressure is expected to move across the Florida Peninsula, bringing heavy rain, especially if it tracks south of Tampa. Such a track would allow the storm more time to organize over the warm waters of the Gulf.
>> READ MORE: AccuWeather Outperforms National Hurricane Center and All Other Known Sources in 2024 Hurricane Season With Most Accurate Forecasts, Most Advance Notice
AccuWeather First Known Source to Issue Track
AccuWeather was the first known source to issue a forecast track for the system on Monday afternoon, ahead of all other sources. The organization uses the term "tropical rainstorm" to emphasize threats from systems that have not yet been officially classified but still carry the risk of significant rainfall and wind impacts.
Development in the Gulf and Landfall Expectations
As the system crosses Florida and enters the Gulf, it will have 24 to 48 hours to strengthen. “We expect this tropical rainstorm to make landfall along the southeast Louisiana coast on Thursday morning. At this time, we do not expect this system to develop into a hurricane in the Gulf,” DaSilva said.
While warm Gulf waters could support development, factors such as wind shear—a change in wind speed and direction with height—are expected to limit rapid intensification. Still, AccuWeather forecasts the storm could become a tropical depression and potentially a named storm before making landfall. If named, it would be Tropical Storm Dexter—the next name on the 2025 Atlantic storm list.
>> READ MORE: AccuWeather Warning for Active 2025 Hurricane Season, Forecasts Multiple Direct U.S. Impacts
Rainfall and Wind Threats Across the Gulf Coast
The most intense downpours are expected across Florida, coastal Alabama and Mississippi, and southeastern Louisiana. Forecasted rainfall totals range from 4 to 8 inches, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of up to 16 inches, elevating the risk of widespread flooding.
There is the potential that the rainstorm could stall over Louisiana. If this occurs, much higher rainfall amounts and more widespread flooding can occur. If the rainstorm is unable to organize, the heavy rainfall and flooding risk can be more localized.
Gusty winds are also a concern, with speeds reaching 40–50 mph and a Local StormMax™ of 60 mph near the Louisiana coast.
In addition, storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible across southeastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi.
AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale: 1
This tropical rainstorm is currently rated a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes. While not the most extreme rating, a 1 event still warns of:
• Localized flooding
• Damage to unanchored mobile homes and vegetation
• Power outages
• Coastal inundation leading to some property damage
Unlike the Saffir-Simpson scale, which measures only wind speed, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale factors in flooding rain, storm surge, wind, and economic damage, providing a more comprehensive view of the storm’s overall threat.
No Threat to Texas Hill Country—For Now
DaSilva says that the Texas Hill Country, still recovering from catastrophic flash flooding over the Independence Day weekend, is not expected to be impacted by this system. That earlier tragedy along the Guadalupe River resulted in over 130 deaths and damages estimated at $18 to $22 billion. “We’re forecasting the surge of rainfall from this tropical system to stay well east of the Texas Hill Country. We will be monitoring this tropical system very closely,” said DaSilva.
An Active Season So Far
With the Atlantic hurricane season not yet at its climatological peak, AccuWeather’s experts say that the 2025 season is running ahead of schedule. The average fourth named storm typically forms by August 15, while the first hurricane tends to develop by August 11.
First named Tropical Storm Chantal brings devastation and flooding to central North Carolina and the Chapel Hill area in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States on July 7, 2025. (Photo by Peter Zay/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Tropical Storm Chantal, which recently made landfall in the Carolinas, has already caused $4 to $6 billion in damage due to flooding and tourism disruption. Between July 21 and July 24, AccuWeather is also monitoring another area off the Southeast Atlantic coast for potential tropical development.
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Stay Better Informed and the Best Prepared
Stay updated with AccuWeather for the latest forecasts, alerts, and safety guidance as this tropical rainstorm continues to evolve. Even systems that don’t reach hurricane strength can cause life-threatening flooding and hazardous conditions. Now is the time to prepare.
Contact AccuWeather today to learn more about how AccuWeather's Hurricane Warning Service can help your business better prepare for hurricanes and tropical threats.
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