Why ethanol woes and COVID-19 won't stop a record-breaking year for one crop
By
John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer
Published May 1, 2020 4:19 PM EDT
What will the weather be like this summer? Find out in AccuWeather's 2020 summer forecast.
The tell-tale corn planted numbers from Illinois, Iowa and Indiana jumped off the latest United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Progress report, according to AccuWeather’s commodities experts. The data clearly revealed the intentions of farmers in those leading corn-growing states in this time of uncertainty because of the coronavirus pandemic and the collapse of the ethanol production industry.
“The corn is going in fast in those states,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel. “What was really impressive was Iowa went from 2 percent planted to 39 percent planted. They planted almost half of their crop in one week! So they’re planting corn and the weather is favorable for it.”
Here are AccuWeather’s 2020 crop production forecasts for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton.
CORN
AccuWeather continues to predict a record-setting year for corn production with an expected 15.664 billion bushels based on 95 million acres planted. That’s a 12.5 percent increase over last year’s total of 13.692 and would top the U.S. record for annual corn production of 15.15 billion bushels set in 2016.
Those favorable corn production estimates are despite ethanol production plummeting drastically – the number of barrels produced per day fell 50 percent from Feb. 28 to April 24. Roughly 40 percent of corn grown is used for ethanol.
“The numbers are there – they’re getting the corn planted early in those key states,” said Samuhel. “If there were no economic impacts affecting this, we’d have even higher estimates for corn.”
“When you have the soil and growing conditions that are typical for those 'I' states [Illinois, Iowa, Indiana], it’s hard not to grow corn,” Calvin Haile, co-owner of Haile Farm in Dunnsville, Virginia, told AccuWeather. “Corn is king there, as they say.”
SOYBEANS
AccuWeather forecasts a significant increase in U.S. soybean production compared to 2019 – 4.284 billion bushels versus 3.558 last year, a jump of almost 17 percent. The forecast is based on 84.7 million soybean acres planted.
“It’s not out of the question that farmers could plant a lot of soybeans this year because the soybean-to-corn price ratio of 2:55 to 1 is slightly in favor of planting soybeans,” said AccuWeather commodities consultant Jim Candor. “Our summer forecast is really favorable for soybeans so that’s why we have a yield of 51 bushels per acre, and the number of acres could even be higher if farmers switch because of the ethanol situation with corn.
“But what’s happened the last couple of years with exporting soybeans to China obviously hurt the U.S., but supposedly that’s solved,” Candor added. “Who knows? But that’s a reason not to take the soybean production numbers up any higher because China may not follow through on their importing. That’s the concern.”
WHEAT
AccuWeather predicts total U.S. wheat production will be 1.856 billion bushels, which is slightly below the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) of 1.920 billion bushels. It’s also just below last year’s total of 1.885 billion bushels.
Cold weather earlier in April caused damage to jointing wheat in central Kansas, which is a key factor in AccuWeather’s estimate.
“There was clearly some wheat damage in Kansas because of the cold, it’s just a matter of how much,” said Samuhel. “Kansas is the biggest producer of wheat, and it appears the biggest damage occurred in the areas that are the highest yielding counties.”
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The condition of winter wheat in Kansas fell from a 50 percent good-to-excellent rating to just 40 percent in two weeks.
“Two other things, too; one it’s just not raining enough in the western part of the Wheat Belt,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Tyler Roys. “They’re not getting important rain. And it’s going to be in the mid-90s this weekend from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles up into far southern Kansas. That’s putting stress on wheat in Kansas that doesn’t need that stress right now.”
COTTON
AccuWeather expects U.S. cotton production to be 20.66 million bales, with the weather in Texas later this summer playing a factor in that forecast.
“My slight concern is west Texas later this summer if we go into a La Nina, then maybe some of the better yields could get bumped down a little if it gets really dry,” said Samuhel. “Overall, our forecast calls for it to be a lot wetter east of the panhandle compared to average.”
The USDA will release its latest WASDE report on May 12. Its production estimates from March had corn at 15.46 billion bushels, soybeans at 4.195 billion bushels, wheat at 1.836 billion bushels and cotton at 19.5 million 480-pound bales.
A young visitor to the Husker Harvest Days farm show last September in Grand Island, Neb., inspects a combine's corn header. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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News / Business
Why ethanol woes and COVID-19 won't stop a record-breaking year for one crop
By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer
Published May 1, 2020 4:19 PM EDT
What will the weather be like this summer? Find out in AccuWeather's 2020 summer forecast.
The tell-tale corn planted numbers from Illinois, Iowa and Indiana jumped off the latest United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Progress report, according to AccuWeather’s commodities experts. The data clearly revealed the intentions of farmers in those leading corn-growing states in this time of uncertainty because of the coronavirus pandemic and the collapse of the ethanol production industry.
“The corn is going in fast in those states,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel. “What was really impressive was Iowa went from 2 percent planted to 39 percent planted. They planted almost half of their crop in one week! So they’re planting corn and the weather is favorable for it.”
Here are AccuWeather’s 2020 crop production forecasts for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton.
CORN
AccuWeather continues to predict a record-setting year for corn production with an expected 15.664 billion bushels based on 95 million acres planted. That’s a 12.5 percent increase over last year’s total of 13.692 and would top the U.S. record for annual corn production of 15.15 billion bushels set in 2016.
Those favorable corn production estimates are despite ethanol production plummeting drastically – the number of barrels produced per day fell 50 percent from Feb. 28 to April 24. Roughly 40 percent of corn grown is used for ethanol.
“The numbers are there – they’re getting the corn planted early in those key states,” said Samuhel. “If there were no economic impacts affecting this, we’d have even higher estimates for corn.”
“When you have the soil and growing conditions that are typical for those 'I' states [Illinois, Iowa, Indiana], it’s hard not to grow corn,” Calvin Haile, co-owner of Haile Farm in Dunnsville, Virginia, told AccuWeather. “Corn is king there, as they say.”
SOYBEANS
AccuWeather forecasts a significant increase in U.S. soybean production compared to 2019 – 4.284 billion bushels versus 3.558 last year, a jump of almost 17 percent. The forecast is based on 84.7 million soybean acres planted.
“It’s not out of the question that farmers could plant a lot of soybeans this year because the soybean-to-corn price ratio of 2:55 to 1 is slightly in favor of planting soybeans,” said AccuWeather commodities consultant Jim Candor. “Our summer forecast is really favorable for soybeans so that’s why we have a yield of 51 bushels per acre, and the number of acres could even be higher if farmers switch because of the ethanol situation with corn.
“But what’s happened the last couple of years with exporting soybeans to China obviously hurt the U.S., but supposedly that’s solved,” Candor added. “Who knows? But that’s a reason not to take the soybean production numbers up any higher because China may not follow through on their importing. That’s the concern.”
WHEAT
AccuWeather predicts total U.S. wheat production will be 1.856 billion bushels, which is slightly below the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) of 1.920 billion bushels. It’s also just below last year’s total of 1.885 billion bushels.
Cold weather earlier in April caused damage to jointing wheat in central Kansas, which is a key factor in AccuWeather’s estimate.
“There was clearly some wheat damage in Kansas because of the cold, it’s just a matter of how much,” said Samuhel. “Kansas is the biggest producer of wheat, and it appears the biggest damage occurred in the areas that are the highest yielding counties.”
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The condition of winter wheat in Kansas fell from a 50 percent good-to-excellent rating to just 40 percent in two weeks.
“Two other things, too; one it’s just not raining enough in the western part of the Wheat Belt,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Tyler Roys. “They’re not getting important rain. And it’s going to be in the mid-90s this weekend from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles up into far southern Kansas. That’s putting stress on wheat in Kansas that doesn’t need that stress right now.”
COTTON
AccuWeather expects U.S. cotton production to be 20.66 million bales, with the weather in Texas later this summer playing a factor in that forecast.
“My slight concern is west Texas later this summer if we go into a La Nina, then maybe some of the better yields could get bumped down a little if it gets really dry,” said Samuhel. “Overall, our forecast calls for it to be a lot wetter east of the panhandle compared to average.”
The USDA will release its latest WASDE report on May 12. Its production estimates from March had corn at 15.46 billion bushels, soybeans at 4.195 billion bushels, wheat at 1.836 billion bushels and cotton at 19.5 million 480-pound bales.
A young visitor to the Husker Harvest Days farm show last September in Grand Island, Neb., inspects a combine's corn header. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo