'Favorable' weather conditions are ahead for many US farmers

Cindy Ayers Elliott, owner of Foot Print Farms, right, discusses the best method of cleaning and preparing some of her vegetables for dinner to a customer at the Mississippi Farmers Market April 4, 2020 in Jackson, Miss. Gov. Tate Reeves' shelter at home executive order, limits the number of activities people can do in the face of a spreading COVID-19. However, shopping for groceries at the market is allowed and a number of customers and vendors wore protective masks and gloves for extra security. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

Wet weather in recent weeks over the Tennessee Valley, lower Midwest and the northern half of the Mississippi Delta has led to saturated soils and has hampered fieldwork and early planting, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. Rainfall in those areas this week will be near to above normal, continuing to slow planting efforts. Rainfall next week may be near to below normal, aiding planting efforts

The slightly slow start to the planting season is reflected in this year’s second Crop Progress report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Monday. 

Eleven of the 18 states that planted 91 percent of the 2019 corn acreage have planted four percent or less of their corn so far. For comparison, the five-year average for this date shows that eight of the 18 to be at four percent or less. 

Soybean and cotton planting are running comparably to the five-year average at this early state. For wheat, cold weather early last week is likely to have caused some damage to jointing wheat in central Kansas, while farther south, it may not have been cold enough to cause any damage, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. The extent of the damage is not yet known. 

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“No new cold weather is expected this week, and the weather the next two weeks will be favorably moist without any heat,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dave Samuhel. “This may allow damaged wheat to make some recovery.”

The long-term outlook indicates planting conditions are expected to be favorable across most crop area from the Plains into the Midwest this spring, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. However, there could be some early planting delays across the lower half of the Midwest through early May. 

AccuWeather does not expect the coronavirus to impact planting or the harvest later this season. “I would think this would have little impact on the harvest unless the rural areas somehow get devastated by this, but I don’t think that’s the most likely turn of events,” said AccuWeather commodities consultant Jim Candor. 

AccuWeather predicts U.S. corn production will be 15.735 billion bushels, which would be a U.S. record for annual corn production, topping 15.15 billion bushels in 2016. That’s roughly a 13 percent increase over the final total last year of 13.692 billion bushels. 

AccuWeather forecasts U.S. soybean production also will see a strong comeback, with production estimated to be 4.258 billion bushels, a 19.6 percent increase from 2019’s total of 3.558 billion bushels, which was the lowest total since 2013 (3.357 billion bushels). Such an increase would be the largest year-over-year improvement since 2004 (27.3 percent increase from 2003). 

AccuWeather is predicting U.S. wheat production will be 1.933 billion bushels, which is essentially equal to the USDA estimate of 1.92 billion bushels, while for cotton, AccuWeather forecasts production of 20.66 million bales compared to the USDA estimate of 19.8 million bales.

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