How the coronavirus is impacting US farmers. Could the weather help?
By
John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Mar 27, 2020 2:37 PM EDT
Last year's flooding hit farmers hard. In this file photo, Jeff Jorgenson looks over a partially flooded field he farms near Shenandoah, Iowa. About a quarter of his land was lost last year to Missouri River flooding. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)
(AP Photo/Nati Harnik)
The 2020 U.S. crop season was lining up to be an excellent bounce-back year, which was welcome news for farmers eager to recover from 2019’s disaster. Then things changed in America very quickly in March because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
The impact of the outbreak has affected both the overall U.S. and agriculture-specific economies, most notably in falling commodity prices, and a lower demand for corn-based ethanol because of plummeting oil prices.
“The slowdown in the economy … has presented a never-before-seen challenge to those in the grain and livestock business,” long-time Nebraska farmer Edwin C. Brummels told AccuWeather. “Patience and understanding are going to be required in marketing and by those having a financial stake in each grower’s operation for the foreseeable future.”
The good news for U.S. farmers: AccuWeather still foresees a record-setting corn crop, a significant year-over-year increase in soybean production and cotton production that could be the best in a decade. The forecasted warmer spring and summer weather also should be beneficial for wheat production.
AccuWeather is predicting U.S. corn production in 2020 will reach 15.486 billion bushels (393.344 million metric tons), based on 87 million acres harvested with 178 bushels per acre. The U.S. record for annual corn production is 15.15 billion bushels, set in 2016.
U.S. corn production was 13.69 billion bushels in 2019, the lowest since 2015 (13.601 billion bushels). The 13.1 percent increase AccuWeather is predicting for this year would be the largest year-over-year increase since 2013 (28.5 percent increase from 2012).
AccuWeather also is predicting U.S. soybean production will see a strong comeback, with production estimated to be 4.258 billion bushels (115.886 million metric tons), based on 83.5 million acres harvested with 51 bushels per acre.
That would be a 19.6 percent increase from 2019’s total of 3.558 billion bushels, which was the lowest total since 2013 (3.357 billion bushels). Such an increase would be the largest year-over-year improvement since 2004 (27.3 percent increase from 2003).
“Any farmer who is living on the edge will at the very least consider the risk of growing a crop which may not be profitable,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dave Samuhel. “That could lead to more conservative acreage then what the market may have dictated before the virus hit.
“However, last year was a record number by far for prevented plant acreage – 18 million acres combined for corn, soybeans and wheat – so farmers are going to be eager to get back into action,” Samuhel added.
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Thanks to good starting growing conditions, AccuWeather predicts cotton production will reach its highest output in a decade: 19.85 million (480 lb.) bales from 10.95 million acres yielding 870 pounds per acre. U.S. wheat production (winter and spring) in 2020 is predicted to reach 1.874 billion bushels, based on 38.1 million harvested acres with 49.2 bushels per acre (51.016 million metric tons).
The weather in spring and summer looks to be a boon for farmers. AccuWeather is forecasting higher-than-normal temperatures over the next three months throughout the United States. “There is almost no part of the country that we are predicting to be below normal in any of the three months, which is unusual,” said AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers. “This may be a first.”
“The big thing is getting the sun out at this time of year,” said AccuWeather commodities consultant Jim Candor. “If you get that April sun, it’ll warm the topsoil pretty fast. Right now, it’s wet. But that’s why getting a dry week in the first half of April is pretty important.”
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on April 9. Its estimates in March were: corn: 15.458 billion bushels; soybeans: 4.194 billion bushels; wheat: 1.836 billion bushels; and cotton: 19.5 million bales.
Farmers are dealing with the coronavirus pandemic as another reality that must be managed. “Obviously, we take extra precautions when needed,” said Nebraska farmer Justin Mensik. “I think the vast majority of us will be just fine. We see more cows than people in a day.”
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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News / Business
How the coronavirus is impacting US farmers. Could the weather help?
By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Mar 27, 2020 2:37 PM EDT
Last year's flooding hit farmers hard. In this file photo, Jeff Jorgenson looks over a partially flooded field he farms near Shenandoah, Iowa. About a quarter of his land was lost last year to Missouri River flooding. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)
The 2020 U.S. crop season was lining up to be an excellent bounce-back year, which was welcome news for farmers eager to recover from 2019’s disaster. Then things changed in America very quickly in March because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
The impact of the outbreak has affected both the overall U.S. and agriculture-specific economies, most notably in falling commodity prices, and a lower demand for corn-based ethanol because of plummeting oil prices.
“The slowdown in the economy … has presented a never-before-seen challenge to those in the grain and livestock business,” long-time Nebraska farmer Edwin C. Brummels told AccuWeather. “Patience and understanding are going to be required in marketing and by those having a financial stake in each grower’s operation for the foreseeable future.”
The good news for U.S. farmers: AccuWeather still foresees a record-setting corn crop, a significant year-over-year increase in soybean production and cotton production that could be the best in a decade. The forecasted warmer spring and summer weather also should be beneficial for wheat production.
AccuWeather is predicting U.S. corn production in 2020 will reach 15.486 billion bushels (393.344 million metric tons), based on 87 million acres harvested with 178 bushels per acre. The U.S. record for annual corn production is 15.15 billion bushels, set in 2016.
U.S. corn production was 13.69 billion bushels in 2019, the lowest since 2015 (13.601 billion bushels). The 13.1 percent increase AccuWeather is predicting for this year would be the largest year-over-year increase since 2013 (28.5 percent increase from 2012).
AccuWeather also is predicting U.S. soybean production will see a strong comeback, with production estimated to be 4.258 billion bushels (115.886 million metric tons), based on 83.5 million acres harvested with 51 bushels per acre.
That would be a 19.6 percent increase from 2019’s total of 3.558 billion bushels, which was the lowest total since 2013 (3.357 billion bushels). Such an increase would be the largest year-over-year improvement since 2004 (27.3 percent increase from 2003).
“Any farmer who is living on the edge will at the very least consider the risk of growing a crop which may not be profitable,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dave Samuhel. “That could lead to more conservative acreage then what the market may have dictated before the virus hit.
“However, last year was a record number by far for prevented plant acreage – 18 million acres combined for corn, soybeans and wheat – so farmers are going to be eager to get back into action,” Samuhel added.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Thanks to good starting growing conditions, AccuWeather predicts cotton production will reach its highest output in a decade: 19.85 million (480 lb.) bales from 10.95 million acres yielding 870 pounds per acre. U.S. wheat production (winter and spring) in 2020 is predicted to reach 1.874 billion bushels, based on 38.1 million harvested acres with 49.2 bushels per acre (51.016 million metric tons).
The weather in spring and summer looks to be a boon for farmers. AccuWeather is forecasting higher-than-normal temperatures over the next three months throughout the United States. “There is almost no part of the country that we are predicting to be below normal in any of the three months, which is unusual,” said AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers. “This may be a first.”
“The big thing is getting the sun out at this time of year,” said AccuWeather commodities consultant Jim Candor. “If you get that April sun, it’ll warm the topsoil pretty fast. Right now, it’s wet. But that’s why getting a dry week in the first half of April is pretty important.”
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on April 9. Its estimates in March were: corn: 15.458 billion bushels; soybeans: 4.194 billion bushels; wheat: 1.836 billion bushels; and cotton: 19.5 million bales.
Farmers are dealing with the coronavirus pandemic as another reality that must be managed. “Obviously, we take extra precautions when needed,” said Nebraska farmer Justin Mensik. “I think the vast majority of us will be just fine. We see more cows than people in a day.”
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo