Western New York facing another round of heavy lake-effect snow
A winter storm will continue to bring snow, freezing rain, sleet and rain to the Northeast through the start of the weekend.
In the wake of a massive storm that brought impacts ranging from blizzard conditions to severe weather, heavy snow, ice and rain from coast to coast this past week, cold air flowing from the Midwest to the Northeast has set off bands of heavy lake-effect snow this weekend.
While the event is not likely to bring historic amounts of snow accumulation like the storm that unfolded in mid-November, some towns will be buried under feet of snow, and gusty winds that blow the snow around will create even more difficult and dangerous travel conditions.
The lake-effect event will follow a widespread snowfall from the Upper Midwest to the interior Northeast this week.
Snow showers can be seen on radar throughout the Great Lakes early Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022. (AccuWeather)
"Given the magnitude of the cold air and unfrozen lakes, snow can fall heavily at times in favored lake-effect areas," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said. "The bulk of the snow is likely to occur in southwestern Michigan, western and northern New York and northwestern Pennsylvania this weekend."
For people not familiar with lake-effect snow, conditions can vary tremendously over short distances as little as several hundred feet. Part of one stretch of highway or neighborhood can experience blizzard conditions with snow that piles up at the rate of 1-6 inches per hour, while another part of town may have only flurries or could remain completely dry. The snow bands can extend dozens to over 100 miles from the lake that produced them.
The main variables that affect the snow bands include wind direction, the speed and temperature of the air and water temperatures in the Great Lakes. The bigger the difference in air temperature versus the water temperature in the lakes, the more intense the snow bands can be. Since winds are rarely constant, the snow bands tend to shift around and change shape.
"Beyond that, as winds become more northwesterly, most of the snow bands coming off Lake Erie should be directed into the southwestern New York ski country and northwestern Pennsylvania from Sunday into Monday," Douty added.
Because the bands of snow off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are likely to shift considerably from one day to the next, a total accumulation of 1-3 feet is likely rather than the 4-7 feet of snow that buried parts of western and northern New York in mid-November. During the November lake-effect event, winds held nearly steady for multiple days.
"This does not look like a repeat of the major lake-effect storm that occurred in November downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario, but the snow will still be quite heavy and will lead to dangerous travel at times," Douty said.
Where the bands of snow are most persistent, 1-3 feet of snow will pile up in the timeframe spanning Friday night to Monday, AccuWeather forecasters say.
The NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins kicked off Saturday evening at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park. When the game started, temperatures were a chilly 29 degrees at the stadium.
The Bills posted a picture on Twitter Saturday morning showing snowy scenes at the stadium.
Orchard Park was hammered with more than 80 inches of snow during the epic lake-effect snowstorm in November, and the NFL was forced to move the Bills' game against the Cleveland Browns on Nov. 20 to Detroit's Ford Field, which has a roof.
Motorists along portions of interstates 79, 80, 81, 86, 90 and 196 are likely to encounter areas of whiteout conditions and possible isolated road closures from Michigan to northern Pennsylvania and upstate New York this weekend.
Lake-effect snow bands rarely survive to locations east of the Appalachians and are not expected to do so this weekend, but cold air will make its presence felt. AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will range from the single digits and teens around the Great Lakes and central and northern Appalachians to the 20s and 30s near the Atlantic coast much of the time this weekend.
Following the outbreak of cold air and lake-effect snow this weekend, an even colder air mass with Arctic and Siberian origins is poised to pour across the central and eastern parts of the U.S. this week.
Regardless of whether or not a massive winter storm precedes the frigid air and where it tracks, AccuWeather meteorologists expect tremendous amounts of lake-effect snow to be unleashed prior to and during the Christmas holiday.
AccuWeather will continue to provide details on the magnitude of the frigid air as well as the track and intensity of the potential major storm in the days prior to Christmas. From the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes, the air is already expected to be the coldest Christmastime air in several decades.
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