Strengthening nor’easter could turn into all-out blizzard in New England
A powerful nor’easter will continue to deliver travel-snarling conditions to the Northeast through midweek.
Residents in the Northeast were bracing for a powerful nor’easter that AccuWeather meteorologists said is set to unleash ferocious winds, heavy snow, blizzard conditions and flooding rain. The storm is poised to be one of the most impactful for the entire winter season for the Northeast due to expected travel delays and power outages.
The center of the storm will push northeastward while remaining just offshore into Tuesday. However, conditions were already deteriorating well in advance of the storm's arrival.
“The early-week nor’easter will be especially notable since it is the first such storm of the season bringing widespread significant impacts in a season which has to date been remarkably warm and devoid of snow,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. “Additionally, most nor’easters have a more plentiful supply of cold air in place before the storm arrives — this storm doesn’t. As such, especially closer to the coast in New England, there can be unusually sharp variations between significant snow of 6 or more inches and very little snow over a distance of even 20 miles.”
The storm will gradually strengthen into Tuesday night. As this occurs, winds will strengthen around the storm, and the center will turn toward the northwest and approach the coast of New England.
"Based on the latest data, it appears the storm will not quite strengthen rapidly enough to be dubbed a bomb cyclone, but it will continue to evolve into a major nor'easter with blizzard conditions in parts of New England," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
Blustery winds will range from 40-50 mph across portions of the Appalachians, northern Virginia, Maryland, central and eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York on northward to interior Maine. Gusts can reach speeds of 50-60 mph along the spine of the Appalachians, parts of New Jersey and southeastern New York.
From eastern New England to New Brunswick, Canada, gusts approaching the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph are possible. There is heightened concern for numerous power outages across the region, downed trees and blowing snow as this potent nor’easter ramps up along the coast. In Boston, the winds began to pick up on Monday and are expected to reach peak gusts on Tuesday.
Coastal flooding will also be a concern as the nor’easter tracks northeastward along the New England coastline. Forecasters say that tides will have the potential to rise 2-3 feet above the historical average for mid-March, particularly during times of high tide.
Conditions will rapidly deteriorate across southern New England through Tuesday, when the heaviest snowfall will likely fall from New York to Maine. Hourly snowfall rates on the order of 2-3 inches per hour may be possible into Tuesday night in the highest elevations of the Adirondacks, Catskills, Berkshires, Green and White Mountain ranges with the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 36 inches possible.
"A motorist heading northward along Interstate 81 in Pennsylvania or the New York Thruway from New York City will encounter rapidly deteriorating weather conditions on Tuesday," Sosnowski said. "Similarly, a motorist heading westward along the Massachusetts Turnpike from Boston or eastward along the Thruway from Buffalo, New York, will be faced with snow-clogged roads, poor visibility and dangerous conditions."
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Widespread power outages will be possible from far southeastern Connecticut to the Massachusetts Cape on northward across the entire coast of Maine. Farther inland in the Catskills, where some of the heaviest snow is expected, the weight of the heavy, wet snow will be enough to bring more widespread outages, even with a lack of stronger winds.
“The snow will be heavy and wet in nature, which can lead to snapped branches and downed power lines,” explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Renee Duff.
Power outages were steadily increasing early Tuesday morning, according to PowerOutage.us. Already there were at least 95,000 utility customers in the dark in New York, with more than 100,000 additional outages in New England as of 10 a.m. EDT.
Other inland parts of the Northeast U.S. will also face a risk of localized and regional power outages. However, with “drier” snow expected to fall in this region, this risk gradually declines from western Pennsylvania to western New York.
Even though the strongest gusts will not reach across interior New England, winds will stand the chance of reaching up to 40 mph in places where heavy snow is spreading. Forecasters warn that this combination can lead to blizzard conditions with times of reduced visibility and blowing and drifting snow, especially from northeastern Massachusetts to southeastern New Hampshire and coastal Maine.
“For a blizzard to be officially declared, there must be blowing and/or falling snow with winds of at least 35 mph and reduced visibility of a quarter-mile or less for at least three consecutive hours,” explained Sosnowski.
The morning commute on Tuesday in southern New England could prove quite challenging, with hefty snowfall and gusty winds spreading across the region. Roads will likely be slippery east of the lakes across western New York and parts of northwestern Pennsylvania on Tuesday, including Erie, Pennsylvania, and Buffalo, New York. Heavier snowfall accumulating rapidly to the east from central New York to southern Maine on Tuesday will likely produce disruptions to various modes of travel.
Locations forecast to see wind gusts upwards of 50 mph with this storm will be at risk for substantial airline delays and cancellations. Transportation hubs such as Boston and New York City could face challenging weather conditions, and travelers are urged to call ahead to check on the status of their flights.
"For those on the roads, slippery conditions may become most widespread in New York City as the afternoon progresses Tuesday. Elevated surfaces, like bridges and overpasses, will be susceptible to slick conditions first," said Soswnowski.
Temperatures in New York City on Tuesday may peak near 40 degrees Fahrenheit, but that daily maximum will likely not occur in the afternoon as it typically does. The daytime high in the city could be recorded during the early morning hours and crash throughout the day as rain mixes with snow.
The variability of the track of the storm can have a significant impact on conditions in northern New Jersey and southeastern New York. Any slight shift could spell trouble for how much snow the region receives, and residents are urged to continually check back to AccuWeather for the most up-to-date information on this impactful storm.
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