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News / Winter Weather

Major snow and ice storm to barrel across middle of US

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated Feb 12, 2021 9:39 AM EST

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AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking several winter storms across the United States this week amid what has become an "unbelievable” weather pattern. One of those storms has already unleashed icy precipitation that led to deadly traffic accidents in parts of Texas on Thursday. Close to 20 million Americans throughout the country's mid-section can expect to be impacted by winter weather in the coming days.

Following right behind that is another system that meteorologists expect will track across a large portion of the middle of the nation and dip down into the south-central U.S. this weekend into early next week. That emerging storm could deliver a big blast of wintry weather to places like Dallas, which, despite its bout with icy weather on Thursday, hasn't recorded snow yet this season, and points even farther south in Texas.

"It is a stormy, stormy pattern across the country,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno, who described it as unbelievable in his Weather Insider Podcast, said. “So far, we haven’t seen much in the way of snow and ice across [the] heart of Texas, but that is going to be changing as we head into Sunday and Monday."

Temperatures are forecast to dip to record levels in the 20s, teens and even the single digits F in some cases by Saturday night in portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas -- and that is likely to set the stage a major winter storm.

"Anytime you get an Arctic air mass into Texas, you always have to worry about snow and ice because, at some point, warmer air is going to try to return. And, when warmer air collides with that colder air, you get clouds and precipitation,” Rayno said.

"The other thing you look for is if you we have any energy in the atmosphere coming toward Texas, and the answer is yes," he added.

The setup, which will trigger an extensive swath of snow and ice, will be brought on by the interaction of Arctic air in place and a flow of warmer and moist air originating from the Pacific that will sweep across Mexico and into Texas.

"A southward dip in the jet stream later this weekend will allow the moisture to flow in over top of the Arctic air," Rayno explained.

Anytime the air rises in the atmosphere, there is the potential for clouds to develop and produce precipitation. And if the air is cold enough, snow and ice can fall instead of rain. It appears it will be plenty cold enough for snow and ice to occur over much of the South Central states from Sunday to Monday. Depending on the amount of moisture available, the amount of snow and ice can be quite heavy.

Prior to bringing snow and ice to the southern part of the Plains, the storm will spread snow southeastward through the interior West this weekend. Up to a foot or more of snow could pile up over the Wasatch Range in Utah and the Rockies in Colorado and northern New Mexico, and blizzard conditions may even develop for several hours over the passes and in the high country.

Snow is expected to continue falling at heavy rates as the storm shifts over the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. It could potentially dump several inches and up to a foot of snow across a large area, including northwestern Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, northwestern Arkansas and southern Missouri. A small zone may be buried under up to 18 inches from the Texas Panhandle to central Oklahoma.

"Dallas is going to get at least a few, if not, several inches of snow,” Rayno said.

The Dallas/Fort Worth area has received only a few flakes of snow so far this winter but no measurable snow to speak of. The metro area picks up an average of 1.6 inches of snow and sleet during the entire winter season, and this storm could bring that amount all at once and perhaps more should the system develop to its full potential. Last year, only 0.2 of an inch of snow fell during the entire winter.

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Other cities over the South Central states forecast by AccuWeather meteorologists to pick up at least some snow from the storm include Oklahoma City, Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Amarillo, Texas, from Saturday night to Sunday night.

A wintry mix is likely in an area from near San Antonio and Austin, Texas, to Shreveport, Louisiana, and Little Rock, Arkansas, beginning on Sunday night.

Although snow has not accumulated in parts of Texas this winter, icy weather already wreaked havoc from Austin to Dallas. A deadly pileup crash occurred along I-35 near Dallas amid an ice storm Thursday morning. Freezing rain and sleet were so heavy that the precipitation was accompanied by thunder and lightning in northeastern parts of the state.

The widespread and heavy wintry precipitation later this weekend into early next week is predicted to cause extensive travel problems.

Highs could be nearly 40 degrees Fahrenheit below normal by Monday as the storm pulls in Arctic air, according to Rayno. Dallas may only record a high in the teens on Monday, with single-digit low temperature readings.

Just enough cold air may press toward the middle and upper Texas coast to allow for an icy mix with the storm. During most winters, snow and ice do not occur in Houston, but once in a while, when the setup is just right, wintry weather can develop.

"We expect some wet snow, sleet and freezing rain to affect part of the Houston metro area by Monday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Bowers said.

Where temperatures may climb too high for snow and ice to occur, including across southern coastal areas of Texas and central and southeastern Louisiana, raw and nasty conditions are likely. A cold rain and drizzle are forecast for Brownsville and New Orleans early next week.

In the wake of the storm, Arctic air may again surge southward and may bring near-freezing temperatures to the upper Texas coast for a time next week.

Related:

Relentless wintry weather to bombard much of US into next week
Power outages mount as major ice storm triggers hazardous travel
Multiple fatalities, many injured in massive pileup on icy Texas interstate

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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