Tropical storm forming in the Caribbean

A strong tropical wave designated as 97L is moving just south of Hispaniola with winds of near tropical storm force and gusts to over 55 mph. We believe this system will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Earl today. The rest of the tropical Atlantic features two tropical waves. What once was 96L is now a weak tropical wave along 38 west, south of 16 north. A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa and is along 20 west, mostly south of 18 north. Both tropical waves are moving west at 10-15 knots and current information suggests both remain weak and are not expected to become better organized during the next few days.

Tropical invest 97L has been racing westward at 20-25 mph through the Caribbean during the past 24 hours. This fast-forward speed has not allowed the system to wrap up. However, this fast steering flow forcing the system on this fast pace is expected to weaken, and therefore 97L should slow down and become better organized today and during the next couple of days as it approaches the western Caribbean. Satellite-derived winds of 30-35 knots with gusts to 50 knots are located mostly north and northeast of the estimated center, which is just less than 200 miles south of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

Computer forecasts continue to show 97L intensifying steadily today through Wednesday. The various intensity forecasts have this system remaining a minimal tropical storm or intensifying into a minimal hurricane within the next two days. A consensus of several models suggests a gradual increase in intensity. It's very possible this system, which should become Tropical Storm Earl, could become a hurricane before moving inland late on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

The track forecasts show 97L making landfall over the far southern Yucatan or Belize late on Wednesday or Wednesday night. The consensus of several computer models suggests Belize is the more likely target at this point. As stated above, 97L could be a hurricane by the time it makes landfall. Once over land it will weaken on Thursday. However, the steering flow should take the system into the Bay of Campeche where it will have an opportunity to re-intensify. The consensus forecast takes 97L into the southern Mexican coast of the Bay of Campeche by Friday. However, if the system moves on a more north of west track, a second landfall could be delayed until the upcoming weekend.

Based on current information, we believe 97L will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Earl later today. We don't see any other support for tropical development across the rest of the basin through at least the next five days.

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