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Atlantic Ocean may spawn new tropical systems this week

By Kyle Elliott, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Oct 8, 2019 9:26 AM EDT

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Although the Atlantic Ocean has remained void of named tropical systems since Lorenzo's demise last week, AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring several areas for potential tropical formation this week.

One such area is located about 750 miles east of Bermuda over the central Atlantic. The other area is located several hundred miles off the east coast of the United States.

Although neither of these areas has a particularly good chance to develop into a named tropical system, the second is of greater concern since it will cause rough surf, gusty winds and heavy rain along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England beaches late this week.

The area over the central Atlantic will meander slowly to the northwest in the coming days.

Fortunately, this system has already moved into an area of high wind shear, and this will continue to hinder the system's development chances late this week. Long before the system reaches Bermuda, it is likely to merge with a non-tropical storm and be carried away into the open waters of the north-central Atlantic.

Although unlikely, if the system were to develop into a tropical storm, it would be given the name Melissa.

Boating and shipping interests across the central Atlantic should continue to monitor the progress and intensity of this system, but it is not forecast to pose any direct threat to land.

Meanwhile, a storm between the East coast of the United States and Bermuda will churn offshore late this week.

"Those along the coast, as well as in Atlantic Canada, should monitor the evolution of this system in the coming days," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

Although no direct landfall will occur in the mid-Atlantic, eastern New England or Atlantic Canada, rip currents and large swells from the storm will create dangers for boaters, surfers and swimmers.

Looking ahead to this weekend and next week, there is some concern for development over the western Caribbean, Sosnowski added.

The tropical Atlantic has several areas of interest that forecasters are monitoring. This image shows the basin during Wednesday morning, Oct. 9, 2019. (NOAA/GOES-EAST)

NOAA/GOES-EAST

There is a high amount of uncertainty as to whether or not any organized system tries to take shape in this region, but environmental conditions should be conducive for development should such a system develop.

Interests in Central America should pay close attention to the Caribbean into early next week for potential tropical development.

Related:

Monitor the Atlantic for tropical development
Following explosive intensification, Hagibis becomes 3rd super typhoon of the year
Will 3-year hurricane streak be snapped this October — or extended to 4 years?

"Elsewhere over the tropical Atlantic, disturbances continue to move off the coast of Africa, but the season for this type of system to develop is generally winding down," Sosnowski said.

"There is no indication of any quick development with any of these tropical waves in the short term, but they will continue to be watched as they drift westward over the next couple of weeks," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

Download the free AccuWeather app to stay up-to-date on the latest tropical activity. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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