Subtropical Storm Alberto has not changed very much in organization this afternoon. Convection has wrapped around the southern edge of the center but dry air continues to erode away at the eastern and now the northern side of the storm, exposing the low-level center.
Wind shear, or the change of speed and direction with height, has decreased slightly and will remain at low levels through tonight and into Monday. Alberto is traveling over warm water, which should help it complete the transition into a tropical storm later tonight or early Monday. By the time Alberto makes landfall late Monday morning over the Florida Panhandle, it is expected to be a tropical storm. The only concern is the amount of dry air that is being pulled into the system. This has and may continue to prevent significant thunderstorm development from occurring which will limit how much Alberto is able to strengthen.
Alberto will bring life-threatening conditions to a large area through early this upcoming week. Heavy rainfall will spread northward across much of the Deep South through Tuesday. Flooding will be a concern across Florida, the Gulf Coast and the Deep South, especially near and east of Alberto's track. Localized rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches are expected in this area, which will lead to widespread flooding. Impassible roads and washouts, as well as flooded homes can be expected. Heavy rain and the threat for isolated flooding will follow Alberto's track northward into the Ohio Valley later in the week.
In addition to flooding rainfall, coastal flooding will be possible with Alberto through Monday. An inundation of 1 to 3 feet is expected along Florida's gulf coast as the storm's forward motion slows near landfall. Also, Alberto will bring life-threatening rip currents to most of the Gulf Coast, especially east of the track through early this week. This is not good news for people who were planning on heading to the beach for Memorial Day weekend.
As Alberto continues northward this evening, the outer rain bands may bring wind gusts up to 40-45 mph to the west coast of Florida along with a threat for isolated tornadoes and waterspouts.
The threat for damaging winds with Alberto will be greatest near and east of the track as it comes onshore late Monday morning. Sustained winds of 50-60 mph and gusts of 65-75 mph along the immediate coastline will cause power outages and some tree and structural damage.
Aside from Alberto, there are no other features worth watching at this time in the Atlantic Basin.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Jordan Root
000 ABNT20 KNHC 251603 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Subtropical Storm Alberto, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on 1 June. && Public Advisories on Alberto are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Alberto are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Flooding will remain the greatest concern across the southeastern United States as Alberto churns northward with an expected Memorial Day landfall on the Florida Panhandle.
While Alberto is expected to target the upper Gulf Coast this holiday weekend, the risk for major flooding in the southeastern United States may extend beyond Memorial Day.
With the formation of Alberto, many may be wondering if early-season development translates into an active Atlantic hurricane season.
A resurgence of heavy storms and downpours is expected across the southeastern United States beginning this weekend as a tropical feature brews in the Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of whether an organized tropical system takes shape in the Gulf of Mexico for the Memorial Day holiday weekend, the southeastern United States will remain at risk for flooding downpours.
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