Tropical Storm Harvey brought gusty winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles Thursday night and Friday, but the system is now rapidly moving away from the island chain. Wind shear continues to keep the system from intensifying significantly, but this will likely change some over the next day or two.
Harvey will continue to move westward at a quick pace over the next 12-24 hours, moving into a less hostile environment this weekend. Low wind shear and very warm water will likely aid in development. Additionally, Harvey should slow down in forward speed later today or Sunday, which will also contribute to further development.
There are still many discrepancies with regard to the precise track early next week, and this will also play a role in the intensity forecast. A farther north track (north of Honduras) would favor a stronger system, while a southern track will lead to more land interaction and reduce the window for intensification. Right now, Harvey will most likely affect far northern Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula by Monday or Tuesday.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, Post-Tropical Storm Gert continues to race toward the British Isles. Some heavy rain and gusty winds can be expected late this weekend and early next week from Gert. We are also watching another tropical wave that continues to look better organized with an envelope of convection developing near the trough. This tropical wave is located approximately 400 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. There is potential for this wave to develop over the next 24-36 hours.
Lastly, we are monitoring a tropical wave with very disorganized convection several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This wave will remain disorganized through at least the weekend. There is some potential for development by early next week.
Written by AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio
000 ABNT20 KNHC 261133 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A few showers and thunderstorms south of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave moving westward at 10 to 15 mph. Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
Following the formation of Harvey, two additional tropical systems may form across the Atlantic Basin with one potentially impacting the US
After drenching the Windward Islands, Harvey will continue to track toward Central America and may bring dangerous conditions early next week.
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The legacy of 1992’s Hurricane Andrew, the most recent Category 5 storm to devastate the United States, serves as a stark reminder of nature’s capability to destroy and forever change lives.
It’s now the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin and with that comes the threat of an active September and the possibility of activity in October and beyond.
In the wake of Gert, a large batch of thunderstorms over the central Atlantic has potential to spawn a tropical depression and storm this week.
Hurricane Gert is now at Category 2 strength and will create dangerous seas and surf along the East Coast of the United States into Thursday.
Mexico was hit twice by the same system this week while tornadoes tore through Oklahoma and injured dozens.