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The Atlantic Ocean
Beta, Teddy and Wilfred across the basin
Updated: September 20, 2020 7:02 AM EDT
Tropical Storm Beta remains nearly stationary over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and is encountering dry air and moderate wind shear. These factors are expected to inhibit strengthening, though Beta should maintain tropical storm intensity until landfall, which is expected late on Monday.
Beta is expected to produce significant flooding from the coast of eastern Texas through Louisiana, into portions of Mississippi and even Alabama, into next week. Rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches will be widespread across portions of the southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana, with coastal locations expected to receive 8-16 inches of rain with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches.
Wind damage is expected to be held to a minimum, though the wind field around Beta will expand over the next 24 hours and produce tropical-storm-force wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph to coastal regions of Texas and Louisiana, beginning today. The strongest winds will be found near where the center of Beta moves over land, and here wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph will be common with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 90 mph. Given the slow-moving nature of Beta, strong wind gusts will persist for 36-48 hours in some locations, prolonging the damage potential. Winds will cause damage to trees and weak or poorly constructed structures. Power outages can be expected due to the combination of heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.
Additionally, isolated tornadoes are expected with the outer bands of Beta across far eastern Texas and southern Louisiana, Monday through the middle of next week. The damage from Laura, Marco and Sally could lead to additional damage to the same area. Interests along the entire Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of the storm.
Primarily due to the flood threat, Beta will be a 2 for the United States on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.
Hurricane Teddy will continue to track northwestward in the central Atlantic Ocean today. Teddy is currently a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, though it is expected to begin losing wind intensity as it moves into cooler water.
Teddy is expected to pass to the east of Bermuda on Sunday night and Monday. We are currently anticipating Teddy to bring 1-2 inches of rain to Bermuda, with wind gusts of 40-60 mph. Some minor damage it possible due to the wind, but the overall impact will be minimal.
Thereafter, Teddy will head toward Atlantic Canada, likely moving over Nova Scotia Tuesday night or Wednesday while losing tropical characteristics. Despite becoming a post-tropical storm, wind gusts of 80-90 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph are forecast near where Teddy moves onshore over Nova Scotia. This is expected to bring down trees and power lines, while also leading to some structural damage, particularly to weak or poorly constructed structures. Given that Teddy will be transitioning to a post-tropical low center, wind gusts of 40-60 mph will extend well away from the center of circulation, bringing minor wind damage to a good portion of Atlantic Canada.
Teddy is expected to be less than 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Bermuda and a 1 across Atlantic Canada.
Tropical Storm Wilfred is located several hundred miles to the east-northeast of the Leeward Islands and is struggling against dry air and wind shear. This wind shear is forecast to increase, and when combined by a marginally moist environment, should lead to gradual weakening Sunday into Monday. As such, Wilfred is expected to lose wind intensity before transitioning to a post-tropical low center and dissipating early in the week. Wilfred will not pose any threat to land.
We are also monitoring Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette as it continues to swirl several hundred miles to the south of the Azores. Paulette will move eastward over the next couple of days and can bring locally heavy downpours to the Azores. Paulette is across relatively warm water, which may allow it to regenerate into a tropical cyclone early in the week.
Lastly, a disturbance located near the east coast of Florida is producing gale-force winds and areas of rain and a few thunderstorms. This area is expected to move onshore today, and as such, is unlikely to develop into a tropical depression.
By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty
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