2014-2015 Europe Winter Forecast

Above is the overall pattern we are looking at for Europe, and below I will go into more detail of the thoughts of myself, Paul Pastelok, Jason Nicholls and Tyler Roys, all excellent meteorologists. The big issue with this winter looks to be the pushes of cold air out of Siberia and Russia into much of Europe. Along with that, northern Europe looks to turn much drier and be quite different than the stormy weather we saw last year. At the same time, the southern parts of Europe look to turn active with some very wet weather and even some snowy weather over the Alps.

From the analogs we have for this year, we are looking at some less snowy weather over much of northern Europe, and some of the analog years match up: 2004/2005 is around average for snowfall days, and 2002/2003 was a much less active day than normal; 2002/2003 is a much different year than the other years we looked at, so we have some other digging to do here. Overall, the snowfall days are a bit above normal for much of northern Europe. The amount of snow seems to be a bit more than normal too, and one of the analog years, 2009/2010, is particularly memorable for most in the U.K. as it was the year of "The Big Freeze". Along with the other years, 1986/1987 and 1977/1978 were the other years we looked at.

Outside of the analog years, we are looking at several other items that will set up in the atmosphere. The NAO is looking like it will average near to even a bit below normal. The big storms we get over Europe typically will come with positive NAO storms, though the wild swings are also some of the other things we look for with severe windstorms to develop. The NAO is a primary driver along with the AO. The AO is one of the ways we get some very strong cold air coming into Europe, and the AO looks to be more negative than average for the area. The negative AO is what we will see in the next few weeks to bring some very cold weather for this time of year. So negative AO will help to bring the cold air out of Asia and into even central and sometimes into western Europe.

The chilly air is shown below in the forecast for temperatures. We may even be underdone on the cold air that is looking to be over Europe. The primary concern is some ridging over northern Europe that could bring some warmer weather over Europe. That ridge looks to strengthen for the end of the winter also. The swings of the temperatures will be quite wild, especially in eastern and central Europe. That cold air could be some very cold shots for January and February, possibly pushing into Germany, and even into France and the U.K. and farther south to Italy. That storm track for Europe will be part of the reason why things are cooler than normal for parts of the Iberian Peninsula and into southern Italy and southeastern Europe. Over southeastern Europe, the battle for the cold air pressing out of Siberia will play out on the cold side of things also. Really, this year may struggle to see any above-normal weather, and the only locations that we may see that are over parts of Scandinavia and into northern Ireland and Scotland. That really looks like the only areas we will see warmer than normal, and that is possibly aggressive and might average near normal or below. Until these cold pushes start, it will be difficult to see how far and the source air for the cold weather we see coming. Someone being 4-5 degrees C below normal over Ukraine, western Russia, or even over eastern Europe, is a possibility. That doesn't occur often, but if it is a copy of "The Big Freeze", it may occur.

The precipitation is above, and that shows the worst of the wetness focused over southern Europe. Storm tracks over the Iberian Peninsula, into southern Italy and southeastern Europe will be a big driver of that. We will likely see a bit wetter than normal, or very above-normal rainfall winter for Spain. We could even see a few rounds of snow over Spain with the cold air pushing out of eastern Europe. Snow in Madrid is not that common, and if it lines up with some very cold weather and snow, that may be some of the heaviest snow in years. This wet weather may also lead to increased fire threat for the summer months there.

Meanwhile, the snow over southeastern Europe could push far south also. Snow in Athens is not very common, but it could occur a few times this year. This storm track with the wet weather over southeastern Europe will be a major concern as the rainfall the past several months in the Balkans has led to major flooding. Thankfully it does not look as wet, but the unsettled weather remains with temperatures below normal with some snow. That could lead to flooding later in the winter and into spring with snow melt, but that is just something else that could be a problem from this snow we are forecasting.

The wet weather over Scandinavia and northern Scotland is primarily early in the winter. That wet weather may be a major push in December with the storms, but it seems to come to an end for January and into February. The major push of cold air should make for below-normal snowfall and rainfall, and with the cold, dry air coming out of Siberia, that will make for some very chilly nights. The coldest nights over the area could line up in January and February for some record-low temperatures, and even all-time record lows over eastern Germany, Poland and into much of eastern Europe. This cold air will be the major driver over much of the continent this year.

So that is the thought of the forecast for Europe, and again, the big stories are the cold coming out of Asia, the wet weather over southern Europe, the threat for more flooding over the Balkans and the drier weather over the U.K. and Ireland. A much different year than last year, but still could be a memorable year over parts of Europe.

Look global, Forecast local

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