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Winter sneak peek replaced with warmth from Plains to East Coast

By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Nov 19, 2020 8:37 PM EST

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A mix of snow and rain spread across New York, giving a light blanket of snow over areas like Apalachin on Tuesday, Nov. 17.

Following cold and, in some locations, snow, forecasters say that the winterlike conditions in the central and eastern United States will soon be a distant memory as the cold retreats and warmer air takes hold.

"For many in the central Plains, this surge of warm air will usher in September-like conditions, with forecast high temperatures some 20-30 degrees above normal," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Sadvary.

Above-normal temperatures will persist into Thursday as the jet stream pushes north and continues to promote a dome of September-like heat across the Central states from Dallas to Detroit.

"This pattern will provide a perfect opportunity for those in the Central states to get outside and enjoy unseasonably mild weather," said Sadvary.

After one more chilly day was endured in the Midwest on Wednesday, this warmth expanded on Thursday. One such city that will experienced a temperature flip is Cleveland. A high temperature that only rose to 42 degrees on Wednesday was replaced with a high of 66 degrees on Thursday. Normally this time of year, an afternoon high temperature in the middle 40s is expected.

"A strong area of high pressure building over the eastern U.S. will create a southwesterly flow that will sweep warm air from the Southwest and northern Mexico into the Plains and Midwest into Thursday," Sadvary explained.

Along with the warm up, gusty winds will also spread eastward through into Thursday. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 55 mph will whip areas from Oklahoma to Wisconsin, including Chicago.

By Thursday, gusts will go eastward, into the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. The gusty winds can cause some issues for high-profile vehicles traveling through the region, with the threat of crosswinds causing blow-overs. Localized damage to trees and powerlines can also occur with the strongest gusts. Some lakeshore flooding will also pester south and west facing coasts in the Great Lakes.

These gusty winds also increased the fire danger from northern Texas to southern Ohio. With plenty of dry brush across this region, gusty winds can quickly spread any fires that develop.

Finally, on Friday the above-normal temperatures will reach the East Coast as the aforementioned high pressure becomes centered over the Southeast. New York City will fail to make it to 50 degrees on Thursday, but will eclipse 61 degrees on Friday. Typically, the Big Apple has a high of 52 or 53 degrees at this time in November.

Overall, temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal by Friday. While this is unlikely to break any records in the Midwest or Northeast, it will be a noticeable change after the below-normal temperatures from early in the week. In addition, in locations where accumulating snow fell, it will melt away by the end of the week.

Any snow that does not disappear by the end of the week should do so over the weekend, as the mild regime continues. Although temperatures will be above normal, two locations may not be as far from average as they will be at the end of the week.

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The first will be across portions of Kansas and Missouri, where clouds and rain will hold temperatures back a bit. Secondly, an area of high pressure moving from southern Canada into New England will create a northerly flow in the Northeast. In areas where the high is centered overhead in northern New England on Saturday night, temperatures in northern Maine could dip into the teens. Therefore, any snow that is left and melts during the day will solidly refreeze at night.

A cold front is expected to move through the Northeast on Monday, but temperatures behind it will not be as low as with the current air mass.

Related:

How cold is too cold? Pandemic's winter months pose hurdle for outdoor dining
More wet weather on the way for drenched, cold Northwest
Daily coronavirus briefing: Who will receive COVID-19 vaccines first?

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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