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Pattern flip to bring big cooldown to West

By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Jun 16, 2022 8:29 AM EDT | Updated Jun 18, 2022 6:17 AM EDT

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Record warmth that the Southwest has endured recently will be a distant memory by this weekend as a major shift in the weather pattern unfolds over the region. Meanwhile, AccuWeather meteorologists say that some locations will experience something they have not seen in quite some time -- rain.

Temperatures have been running well above normal so far this month in much of California with some of the most extreme temperatures being reported in the interior valleys of the Golden State. In fact, new daily record high temperatures were set as recently as last Friday. After one more warm day unfolded on Thursday, this Friday became much different.

"A deep dip in the jet stream is poised to continue the relief from the recent heat in the West," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist La Troy Thornton.

Paso Robles is just one example of a California city where a major cooldown will commence. A high of 95 degrees Fahrenheit Thursday was replaced by just 73 degrees Friday.

While temperatures fell short of records farther inland, the expected cooldown will make inroads into the interior by the weekend.

"Boise, Idaho soared to 91 degrees last Friday, but the mercury will struggle to reach 70 degrees by this Sunday," stated Thornton.

Not only will the dip in the jet stream promote below-normal temperatures, but there is also expected to be precipitation. No significant storm is in the forecast, but spotty showers are likely.

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Showers will be focused along the coast from Washington to northwestern California on Saturday. In the mountains, enough instability may be present to allow for some thunder. Although severe weather is unlikely, some of the strongest storms may produce gusty winds. The cold air in the upper atmosphere will also pose a risk for some of the storms to contain hail.

Farther to the east, the dip in the jet stream will draw moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the Rockies. The circulation around a heat dome over the Plains will also funnel moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico. This will signal the beginning of the North American monsoon.

"This is an important source of rainfall for the region," said Thornton.

The rain is desperately needed in most of the region, with much of the Southwest in extreme or exceptional drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. However, any additional rainfall will only exacerbate the historic flooding ongoing in Yellowstone National Park.

Downpours and the potential for severe thunderstorms will increase over the northern Rockies and the adjacent southern Rockies in Canada this weekend to early next week, forecasters say. It is possible that flooding problems could expand in the region as a result.

Farther south, Some of the storms in the Southwest may cause more lightning than rain. This would pose a risk of sparking new fires early on in the pattern.

As summer officially begins Tuesday, a rebound in temperatures is expected. Highs may be tempered somewhat over the Rockies where daily showers and thunderstorms will be possible as the monsoon continues.

The heat is not predicted to reach the Pacific Northwest, and this may result in a unique record being broken in Seattle. The highest temperature so far this year has been 73 degrees. With highs in the 60s forecast next week, the city will likely set a new record for the latest first occurrence of a high of at least 75 degrees. The current record is June 23, 2010.

The pattern of below-normal temperatures in the coastal Northwest and above-normal readings over the Southwest and in the deserts will continue through much of next week.

More to read:

Yellowstone reopening postponed ahead of additional storms
Epic alignment of 5 planets, moon to peak after summer solstice
Meteorological vs. astronomical vs. solar summer explained

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