July 4 Forecast: Thunderstorms to focus over Upper Midwest, Plains and Florida
Storms that erupt over portions of the central and southeastern United States could disrupt Independence Day activities.
With busy travel days leading up to Independence Day and then the big day itself, how will the weather look across the U.S.? AccuWeather’s Geoff Cornish has the details.
While some of the best weather in the United States for Independence Day 2025 will be in the mid-Atlantic and the West, thunderstorms may affect picnics and fireworks plans over the middle of the nation as well as in the southeastern corner, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
Severe thunderstorms are forecast to grind through from the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast into midweek. That will leave most of the travel trouble spots over the Southwest, where the North American monsoon will begin to kick into gear.
An exception to mainly rain-free conditions at midweek will be spotty thunderstorms from the Midwest to the Northeast from Wednesday to Thursday as a secondary front advances.
A decent push of less humid air will take hold in the Northeast by Independence Day, where many areas can expect sunshine and practically no chance of rain. There will be some showers in parts of northern and eastern New England, however.
Much of the Southeast will experience typical heat and humidity on July Fourth, which will lead to very spotty afternoon and early evening thunderstorms, with the greatest concentration located over the Florida Peninsula. Most of that activity will tend to diminish soon after sunset.
"On Independence Day, the most concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms is likely to be from the Dakotas to the northern parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, AccuWeather Meteorologist Elizabeth Danco said," This is the zone where there are most likely to be some problems for outdoor activities."
Thunderstorms that extend southward from this zone to the Big Bend area of the Rio Grande River, along the Texas and Mexico border, will tend to be somewhat more spotty in nature, but they can be quite heavy and gusty where they do occur.
Most areas from the Rockies to the Pacific coast are likely to be free of rain with a couple of exceptions. Some thunderstorm and shower activity is in store for parts of Montana and Wyoming.
Anywhere there are lightning strikes and little or no rain in the West, there will be the risk of wildfires cropping up. The same concerns exist with fireworks over dry brush or drought areas in the region.
"Light winds and high humidity will be a concern for smoke to promptly clear during fireworks in the Southeast, the South Central and the Ohio Valley on Friday evening," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines said, "Fireworks crews and spectators may have to wait between each round for ideal viewing conditions."
Even though humidity levels will be low for early July in much of the Northeast, once again, light winds could cause some delays for smoke to clear, Kines added.
For those heading to the beach on Independence Day, some of the Florida beaches could be a little dicey in terms of dry weather. AccuWeather meteorologists will be watching the nearby Gulf and southern Atlantic for tropical activity. While this would likely be a slow process, clusters of showers and thunderstorms could form and spoil a day at the beach in some communities.
Experts urge that people spending time outdoors seek shelter indoors at the first rumble of thunder. Golf carts, picnic pavilions, tents, porches and small clusters of trees can be dangerous during thunderstorms. When the inside of a building cannot be reached, a hard-top car or truck is considered to be a relatively safe option, as it is the metal cage of the vehicle and not the rubber tires that protect the occupants. If caught in a storm in a densely forested area, avoid the ridges and the tallest trees, which tend to be struck most often.
Water temperatures throughout the Gulf and southern Atlantic shores are warm enough (in the 80s F) for safe swimming, but conditions along much of the Pacific coast and eastern New England are traditionally chilly in early July. Swimmers in the mid-Atlantic and southernmost California may find some beaches where the water is warm enough to be considered comfortable and safe.
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