Tropical trouble could stir near Southeast beaches around 4th of July
Warm waters along the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts could help fuel the next tropical depression or storm of the 2025 hurricane season around or just after Independence Day.
The first day of July struck the Southeast with widespread thunderstorms that piled rain on top of rain from the day before, creating a serious flooding risk.
An area stretching from the eastern Gulf to Atlantic waters of northeastern Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas is the zone AccuWeather meteorologists continue to watch for tropical development during the first part of July. Meanwhile, Hurricane Flossie in the eastern Pacific has undergone rapid intensification.
People heading to the southeastern United States beaches over the next few days should have little concern from a sudden tropical storm. However, there may be a general uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity, and weather and surf conditions may deteriorate more so on or shortly after the Fourth of July.
The area has been on AccuWeather meteorologists' radar for a couple of weeks now. As anticipated, a broad area of low pressure will form in the region later this week. Lowering atmospheric pressure is sometimes the first sign that tropical development is about to occur.
Next, as the pressure lowers in the region, spotty showers, steady rain at times and thunderstorms in the hot and humid air will tend to organize in groups stretching from the eastern Gulf to the southern Atlantic and over the mainland of the southeastern U.S.
A third step toward tropical development would be if a more concentrated area of low pressure forms within the zone, especially if that occurs in response to one of the thunderstorm clusters.
"At this point the entire zone is being watched, from the northeastern Gulf to waters along the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S." AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said, "We feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week."
The chance of tropical development has been raised to a moderate level along the southern Atlantic coast, compared to a low level in the northeast Gulf as of Tuesday afternoon, based on the latest data available to AccuWeather's tropical weather team.
Once a concentrated area of rain and thunderstorms develops, even without significant wind, AccuWeather meteorologists may declare the low pressure area a tropical rainstorm to give advanced tracking information and adverse weather conditions that could affect land.
Should clustering of thunderstorms and lowering pressure develop enough spin around a center with winds of 35-38 mph, a tropical depression may be born. Waters are warm enough (80 F or higher) to allow and sustain tropical development.
Two tropical storms did not affect the US but the third might
During the last week of June, a cluster of thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure evolved from a tropical rainstorm to a tropical depression and then Tropical Storm Barry, while over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Barry's life only spanned several hours before moving onshore and losing wind intensity in eastern Mexico.
Several days earlier, Tropical Storm Andrea also had a short lifespan while over the central Atlantic, several hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda.
The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is Chantal.
Cool water and vast areas of dry air and dust are likely to continue inhibiting tropical development from Africa to the eastern Caribbean over the next week or more, and that is not unusual at this point of the season.
AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting 11-16 more named storms this season, following Andrea and Barry.
The heart of the hurricane season is still approximately two months away. Despite the seemingly slow start to the Atlantic season, the formation of storms is still several weeks ahead of schedule.
Eastern Pacific up to 6th named storm
Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific continues to be very active for so early in the season, with the sixth named storm already spinning fast. Typically the sixth name storm does not form until early August and the average date for the first major hurricane not until mid-July.
Erick was the earliest fifth named storm on record and the earliest major hurricane to make landfall. Erick rapidly intensified to a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale with peak winds of 145 mph.
Flossie formed off the southwest coast of Mexico Sunday evening as anticipated and will take a northwestern track that nearly parallels the Mexican coast this week, but with the eye of the storm just offshore.
Flossie strengthened into a hurricane Monday night and has reached Category 3 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Given Flossie's rapid intensification, it has become the second major hurricane of the season.
Even with a track offshore, some rain, wind and seas will buffet Mexico's Pacific coast. Should Flossie survive long enough, it could track directly onshore over the southern part of the Baja Peninsula.
Because Flossie will bring significant rain, wind, and rough seas, AccuWeather's RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is a 1 for Mexico.
Enough rain may fall to trigger mudslides and flash flooding in some coastal areas. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall for Flossie in Mexico is 14 inches.
AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate yet another tropical cyclone to form in a matter of days off the Pacific coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
The next name on the list of eastern Pacific tropical storm names for 2025 is Gil.
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