AccuWeather's 2020 South America spring forecast
By
Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior content editor
Published Sep 4, 2020 12:35 PM EDT
Khartoum, Sudan, was drenched by the Nile River on Aug. 11. It was the highest flooding since records began as residents struggled to hold the water back.
The start of spring is right around the corner, but for some people across South America, it may seem like the season jumps right from winter into summer with dry and warmer-than-normal conditions in the forecast in the coming months.
AccuWeather’s team of international forecasters, led by veteran meteorologist Jason Nicholls, has been analyzing the weather patterns around the globe to formulate a seasonal outlook for South America as the continent heads into spring.
One factor that will play a role in the upcoming weather pattern in South America this spring is the development of La Niña. This phenomenon is when water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator is cooler than normal. The opposite of La Niña is El Niño, when the water in this region of the Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal. In both cases, the changing of the water temperatures can influence global weather patterns.
Spring officially begins on Sept. 22 for the Southern Hemisphere, and residents looking forward to spending some time in the warmer weather are reminded to do so safely with coronavirus precautions in mind. Brazil, Peru, Colombia and Argentina are four of the 10 countries with the most reported cases of COVID-19 around the globe, according to Johns Hopkins University.
A dry spring is shaping up for most of the Pacific and Caribbean coasts of South America, raising some drought concerns across the region.
“Cooling of the eastern Pacific due to the developing La Niña will likely result in drier and warmer-than-normal conditions from western Colombia, Ecuador and Peru,” said Nicholls, AccuWeather's lead international forecaster. “Drought conditions can develop in these areas.”
Venezuela in particular will be at risk of dryness concerns, even farther inland where rainy spells are in the forecast, due to drought conditions across the country in recent years.
The long-term drought in Venezuela has had far-reaching effects, ranging from water supply to power production and even the reproduction rates of some birds.
A new study from the University of Montana released in August suggests that 18 species of songbirds in Venezuela did not reproduce as often during times of drought. The reduced breeding can help to increase the chance of survival for these birds amid extreme drought, researchers said.
As some coastal areas in the northern region of South America deal with drought, areas farther inland around the equator will get bouts of rain on a more regular basis.
“The Amazon Basin and Colombia to Venezuela will have rounds of rain which should help with ongoing pockets of dryness,” Nicholls said. “The rain should help keep wildfires from being as bad as recent years in the Amazon Basin. “
The number of fires in the Amazon during August of this year has been lower than the number of fires in August 2019, according to the BBC, but there have still been over 20,000 fires during the month, raising concerns from scientists. The peak of the Amazon fire season is August through September.
A firefighter checks his GPS device as fire consumes land deforested by cattle farmers near Novo Progresso, Para state, Brazil, Sunday, Aug. 23, 2020. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)
Even when the dry season ends and the rain returns, it will not bring an immediate end to the Amazon’s fire season.
“There can still be wildfires over the Amazon, but the severity should be less,” Nicholls said.
Spring will kick off with a wet weather pattern across northern Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and southern Brazil, causing some disruptions across the region before drier weather returns during the second half of the season.
“The rain can result in the risk of flooding over southern Brazil and portions of Paraguay which has had heavier rains recently,” Nicholls said. This includes areas around Asuncion, Paraguay, and Curitiba and Porto Alegre, Brazil.
The timing of the rain may also be an issue for some farmers across the region as they look to harvest winter crops and start sowing the fields for summer crop.
The wheat crop in Brazil is currently on track to be one of the largest harvests on record, according to the Marco Press, an independent news organization based out of Uruguay. This comes after dryness delayed the planting of the wheat crop at the start of the season, said Hamilton Jardim, the president of the State Chamber of Winter Crops in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul.
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Drier conditions will gradually replace the wet weather across this portion of the continent as the focus of the rain shifts north throughout the spring.
“As is seasonally normal, rain will advance northward across Brazil reaching Minas Gerias, Mato Grosso, Bahia and Goias in October and continuing in November,” Nicholls said. “The timely arrival of seasonal rains should be helpful for summer crops."
Some of this rain is expected to reach northeastern Brazil by November following a warm and dry start to the season. This includes Salvador, Recife and Fortaleza.
A warmer-than-normal pattern will dominate much of Chile and Argentina this spring, making some wonder if Mother Nature is skipping from winter straight into summer.
“Despite the risk of heat over Chile and central Argentina, there can be a couple of chances for light precipitation especially early in the season,” Nicholls said. “A few lingering colder shots are possible in September as well.”
Any rain that does fall will likely be minor with a low risk for flooding.
By October, temperatures will start to swell across the region with central Chile in particular facing the potential for heat waves.
Residents in Chile’s capital of Santiago could see the mercury rise to 30 C (86 F) before the calendar turns to November, a time of year when temperatures average close to 23 C (74 F).
Farther south, rounds of rain will limit the temperatures in southern Chile and southern Argentina, especially in September and October. Higher elevations in the southern Andes could also get snow as storms move through the region.
“Precipitation will become more infrequent late in the season with a chance that November is drier than normal,” Nicholls said.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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News / Weather Forecasts
AccuWeather's 2020 South America spring forecast
By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior content editor
Published Sep 4, 2020 12:35 PM EDT
Khartoum, Sudan, was drenched by the Nile River on Aug. 11. It was the highest flooding since records began as residents struggled to hold the water back.
The start of spring is right around the corner, but for some people across South America, it may seem like the season jumps right from winter into summer with dry and warmer-than-normal conditions in the forecast in the coming months.
AccuWeather’s team of international forecasters, led by veteran meteorologist Jason Nicholls, has been analyzing the weather patterns around the globe to formulate a seasonal outlook for South America as the continent heads into spring.
One factor that will play a role in the upcoming weather pattern in South America this spring is the development of La Niña. This phenomenon is when water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator is cooler than normal. The opposite of La Niña is El Niño, when the water in this region of the Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal. In both cases, the changing of the water temperatures can influence global weather patterns.
Spring officially begins on Sept. 22 for the Southern Hemisphere, and residents looking forward to spending some time in the warmer weather are reminded to do so safely with coronavirus precautions in mind. Brazil, Peru, Colombia and Argentina are four of the 10 countries with the most reported cases of COVID-19 around the globe, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Dry conditions to raise drought concerns in Peru, Venezuela
A dry spring is shaping up for most of the Pacific and Caribbean coasts of South America, raising some drought concerns across the region.
“Cooling of the eastern Pacific due to the developing La Niña will likely result in drier and warmer-than-normal conditions from western Colombia, Ecuador and Peru,” said Nicholls, AccuWeather's lead international forecaster. “Drought conditions can develop in these areas.”
Venezuela in particular will be at risk of dryness concerns, even farther inland where rainy spells are in the forecast, due to drought conditions across the country in recent years.
The long-term drought in Venezuela has had far-reaching effects, ranging from water supply to power production and even the reproduction rates of some birds.
A new study from the University of Montana released in August suggests that 18 species of songbirds in Venezuela did not reproduce as often during times of drought. The reduced breeding can help to increase the chance of survival for these birds amid extreme drought, researchers said.
As some coastal areas in the northern region of South America deal with drought, areas farther inland around the equator will get bouts of rain on a more regular basis.
“The Amazon Basin and Colombia to Venezuela will have rounds of rain which should help with ongoing pockets of dryness,” Nicholls said. “The rain should help keep wildfires from being as bad as recent years in the Amazon Basin. “
The number of fires in the Amazon during August of this year has been lower than the number of fires in August 2019, according to the BBC, but there have still been over 20,000 fires during the month, raising concerns from scientists. The peak of the Amazon fire season is August through September.
A firefighter checks his GPS device as fire consumes land deforested by cattle farmers near Novo Progresso, Para state, Brazil, Sunday, Aug. 23, 2020. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)
Even when the dry season ends and the rain returns, it will not bring an immediate end to the Amazon’s fire season.
“There can still be wildfires over the Amazon, but the severity should be less,” Nicholls said.
Rain could bog down farmers in Paraguay, southern Brazil
Spring will kick off with a wet weather pattern across northern Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and southern Brazil, causing some disruptions across the region before drier weather returns during the second half of the season.
“The rain can result in the risk of flooding over southern Brazil and portions of Paraguay which has had heavier rains recently,” Nicholls said. This includes areas around Asuncion, Paraguay, and Curitiba and Porto Alegre, Brazil.
The timing of the rain may also be an issue for some farmers across the region as they look to harvest winter crops and start sowing the fields for summer crop.
The wheat crop in Brazil is currently on track to be one of the largest harvests on record, according to the Marco Press, an independent news organization based out of Uruguay. This comes after dryness delayed the planting of the wheat crop at the start of the season, said Hamilton Jardim, the president of the State Chamber of Winter Crops in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Drier conditions will gradually replace the wet weather across this portion of the continent as the focus of the rain shifts north throughout the spring.
“As is seasonally normal, rain will advance northward across Brazil reaching Minas Gerias, Mato Grosso, Bahia and Goias in October and continuing in November,” Nicholls said. “The timely arrival of seasonal rains should be helpful for summer crops."
Some of this rain is expected to reach northeastern Brazil by November following a warm and dry start to the season. This includes Salvador, Recife and Fortaleza.
Unseasonably warm weather to dominate Chile, Argentina
A warmer-than-normal pattern will dominate much of Chile and Argentina this spring, making some wonder if Mother Nature is skipping from winter straight into summer.
“Despite the risk of heat over Chile and central Argentina, there can be a couple of chances for light precipitation especially early in the season,” Nicholls said. “A few lingering colder shots are possible in September as well.”
Any rain that does fall will likely be minor with a low risk for flooding.
By October, temperatures will start to swell across the region with central Chile in particular facing the potential for heat waves.
Residents in Chile’s capital of Santiago could see the mercury rise to 30 C (86 F) before the calendar turns to November, a time of year when temperatures average close to 23 C (74 F).
Related:
Farther south, rounds of rain will limit the temperatures in southern Chile and southern Argentina, especially in September and October. Higher elevations in the southern Andes could also get snow as storms move through the region.
“Precipitation will become more infrequent late in the season with a chance that November is drier than normal,” Nicholls said.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo