Solar Radiation and Global Warming
Elliot Abrams gave me a call yesterday. "I've found an article that you should read," he said. It's from the January 30 issue of EOS, which is the weekly newspaper of the American Geophysical Union. I would link the article, but I'm not a subscriber. Elliot faxed me the hard copy of the article, titled A Perspective on Global Warming, Dimming and Brightening.
Global dimming is the reduction of solar radiation measured at the Earth's surface, which has been observed since the beginning of systematic measurements in the 1950s. That trend may have reversed over the past decade or so. It's believed that global dimming is probably due to an increase in aerosol particles in the atmosphere, but aerosols' impact on global temperatures continue to be poorly understood. The reduction in solar (shortwave) radiation from 1958 to 1992 was 20 watts per square meter, far more than the 2.4 w/m2 increase in the positive longwave forcing believed to have occurred due to increases in greenhouse gases since the dawn of the industrial age.
The EOS article, written by Gerald Stanhill, raises questions about the IPCC, which has never, at least through the Third Assessment Report, made reference to changes in solar radiation at the Earth's surface. Considering that solar radiation is the primary driver of climate, Dr. Stanhill questions "the confidence that can be placed in a top-down, 'consensus' science system that ignores such a major and significant element of climate change."
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