Threat of severe storms will persist into late week for central, eastern US
AccuWeather forecasters say that the threat of severe storms capable of generating damaging winds, hail, downpours and even isolated tornadoes will linger into the second half of the week for locations from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
The storms that develop this week will stem from one main piece of energy charging across the country. This developing storm was be centered across the Midwest Tuesday, with its associated cold front trailing southward across Texas. As moisture surges northward from the Gulf of Mexico and clashes with the dry, colder air reigning over the northern Plains, it will spark rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms through Thursday.
On Wednesday, the storm's center will push into Canada, and specifically southwest Ontario, and continue to spread a swath of heavy snow across the region. The cold front will span from the Great Lakes to eastern Texas and continue to cause severe storms to erupt as it pushes eastward.
Even as dawn was breaking on Wednesday, there were multiple tornado-warned thunderstorms from Illinois to Arkansas.
The risk of severe weather will extend across 15 states spanning from eastern Texas to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, southwestern Ontario and western New York into Wednesday evening. However, AccuWeather meteorologists have issued "moderate" and "high" risk areas for severe thunderstorms in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and portions of southwestern Ontario.
As thunderstorms increase in strength and number into Wednesday evening, they can bring hailstones and damaging wind gusts ranging from 60-70 mph (100-115 km/h). In the strongest storms, winds could reach as high as an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph (130 km/h).
In central and southeastern Michigan and northern Indiana, the timing of the worst storms is likely to fall between the late afternoon and evening hours. Residents in Indianapolis, Detroit and Cleveland should closely monitor for storm updates and ensure they can receive alerts on their mobile devices. Additionally, it is essential to keep devices charged in case power outages occur due to gusty winds and thunderstorms.
A heavy thunderstorm can develop across western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania during afternoon on Wednesday. There will be chances for additional heavy showers and storms to develop during the overnight hours of Thursday for cities such as Buffalo, New York, and Erie, Pennsylvania.
Clusters of potent thunderstorms can develop along the front throughout the Mississippi Valley, bringing a swath of gusty winds as they pass over the region. The southern flank of the cold front is likely to track very slowly as it transitions eastward, meaning that locations from Memphis, Tennessee, to Louisville, Kentucky, face the risk of thunderstorms popping up throughout the daytime and first half of the overnight period.
As this frontal boundary gradually realigns across the southern United States into Thursday, a setup for frequent downpours will take shape through the last half of the week. Thursday will also bring some risk of hail, downpours and damaging wind gusts as energy shifts eastward to the southern flank of the Interstate 95 corridor and the Carolinas.
Wind gusts are expected to range between 50-60 mph Thursday as the front pushes to the coast. The strongest thunderstorms that can develop Thursday could potentially bring damaging wind gusts of up to an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph.
On Thursday, thunderstorms can produce hail and downpours in cities such as Augusta, Georgia, and Charlotte, North Carolina. Even locations just to the northeast into eastern Virginia and southern New Jersey can see strong to severe storms develop through the evening hours.
"Instability will be present Thursday afternoon for storms that ignite northwest of Raleigh, North Carolina, over the mountains and the Piedmont. Some of these storms can be capable of a heavy, gusty downpour or two, perhaps even some hail, which can linger into Raleigh and locations just to the east into the evening and overnight hours," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Sadvary.
However, the general consensus among AccuWeather meteorologists is that the overall threat of severe weather will lessen by late this week as the storm's energy dissipates. As the frontal boundary stalls across the Southern states, the primary threat will transition to repeated downpours that could bring the risk of flash flooding from Texas to parts of the Tennessee Valley, which could result in a soggy start to the Easter weekend for many.
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