Severe weather outbreak to peak Friday with tornado risk in central US
A multiday severe weather outbreak will intensify Friday with tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds from the Plains to the Midwest before shifting east into the weekend.
Days of severe storms will reach a crescendo on April 17, with increasing risks of tornadoes and destructive hail.
"A multiday severe weather outbreak has unfolded across the central United States, with perhaps the most dangerous conditions yet to come on Friday,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty. Tornadoes are possible with the most intense storms through Saturday.
There have been more than 550 filtered reports of severe weather from Tuesday to Thursday night, including nearly two dozen reports of tornadoes, according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
The bulk of the severe weather has focused on the Midwest and the Plains, with some additional reports of damaging wind and hail in parts of the Northeast. A significant share of the severe weather and tornado reports this week have been from Wisconsin and Iowa.
AccuWeather’s severe weather classification is impact-driven and differs from the Storm Prediction Center’s system, with a focus on clarity for the general public.
On Thursday, reports of hail and damaging wind gusts stretched from northern Arkansas and Tennessee through Vermont and New Hampshire. One particular complex of storms tracked through Nashville, Tennessee, Thursday evening, knocking down numerous trees and power lines. As of early Friday morning, almost 15,000 customers were without power across the state.
Friday could be the worst day of the outbreak, with a large high-risk zone
Severe weather incidents could reach into the hundreds on Friday from near the Big Bend area of the Rio Grande River in Texas to northern and western Michigan, northern Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota.
Portions of Wisconsin and Iowa will face the highest risk of destructive winds and tornadoes.
AccuWeather meteorologists have issued a high risk of severe weather Friday afternoon through Friday night, including in Topeka, Kansas; Kansas City, Missouri; the Quad Cities area of Iowa and Illinois; Cedar Rapids and Dubuque, Iowa; and Madison, Wisconsin.
The Chicago, Milwaukee and Oklahoma City metro areas are also expected to see numerous severe storms before the end of the week.
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"The highest tornado risk later Friday will target parts of southeastern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, northwestern Illinois, and southwestern to central Wisconsin," Douty said.
“The threat will escalate late in the day and continue after dark with the potential for tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts," Douty added. "Make sure your cell phone is charged, notifications are turned on, and you have multiple ways to get warnings that can wake you in the middle of the night. Never depend solely on outdoor tornado sirens, especially at night.”
Late Friday night, the storms are likely to organize into a solid squall line or broken line segments capable of producing strong wind gusts.
Severe weather threat shifts east Saturday
As a cold front tied to the storm system advances, the risk of severe weather will be pushed hundreds of miles farther to the east.
Saturday's severe weather threat zone will extend from central Arkansas to southwestern Ontario, including much of Ohio, western Pennsylvania and southwestern New York.
A few tornadoes are possible in the strongest storms Saturday. Some storms may bring damaging wind gusts and hail.
Sunday storms may still bring damaging wind gusts and hail
By Sunday, the severe weather potential is likely to have passed its peak, but some gusty thunderstorms may extend from the northern Gulf Coast to the Atlantic Coast.
As the cold front moves through the Southeast, rainfall may be spotty. The heaviest downpours are most likely along the Gulf Coast and from the mid-Atlantic to New England.
Much of the Southeast is in dire need of rain amid a long-term drought and wildfire danger.
Upper Midwest flooding to continue, as rain becomes less frequent
Near and north of the severe weather zone, torrential rain has set into motion moderate to major flooding over the Upper Midwest. Additional downpours, mainly Friday in the region, may aggravate existing flooding.
Flash flooding along small streams is feeding into progressively larger rivers across the region. The Muskegon and Grand rivers in Michigan and the Shiocton, Menominee and Wolf rivers in Wisconsin will be at major flood stage into this weekend and may take a week or more to fall below flood stage. Minor flooding is anticipated along a large portion of the Wabash River in Indiana, and minor flooding along a portion of the Mississippi River above St. Louis may last for a couple of weeks or more, even if rainfall stops completely.
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