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Storm system produces dangerous nighttime tornado outbreak

By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Dec 9, 2021 10:41 AM EDT | Updated Dec 10, 2021 10:54 PM EDT

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A dynamic storm system forecast to spread snow from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest brought severe thunderstorms to much of the midwest and south overnight.

Into the end of the week, “a potent storm will advance across the central United States into the Great Lakes,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Smithmyer.

Following building warmth and humidity, the lid came off the atmosphere Friday evening as a cold front moved in from the west and lead to explosive thunderstorm development.

A tornado watch was issued from Arkansas to Indiana until 11 p.m. CST Friday as the first storms of the day started to erupt. As the evening progressed, another tornado watch was issued for portions of Missouri and Illinois.

A particularly dangerous situation began to unfold just before 7 p.m. CST as the NWS a large and extremely dangerous tornado confirmed by spotters located near Greenfield, or near Jonesboro, moving northeast. The tornado was forecast to also near Trumann, Bay, Lake City, Brookland, Monette and Caraway, Arkansas.

"A swath of showers and storms will develop and trail across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and into portions of the Southeast, sparking strong to severe thunderstorms from Friday evening through the overnight hours," said Smithmyer.

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Some of these same locations just dealt with severe weather late this past weekend and earlier this week.

As storms develop, they will produce a tornado risk across multiple states. Some of the locations where the risk for tornadoes will be the highest include Evansville, Indiana, Bowling Green and Paducah, Kentucky, Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee, and Greenville, Mississippi.

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a moderate risk for parts of the Midwest and South. More than 2 million people reside in the moderate risk area, which covers the Memphis, Tennessee, area. Another 15 million people currently live in the area covered by the enhanced risk, while about 16 million reside in the area under a slight risk.

AccuWeather meteorologists remain concerned that the risk of severe thunderstorms may extend as far north as southern Michigan and northern Ohio late Friday night into early Saturday.

The three-year average from 2018 to 2021 for tornadoes in December across the U.S. is 47, according to the SPC. Some Decembers are more active in terms of tornadoes compared to others. In 2018, there were 66 tornadoes reported, compared to just 18 in 2020.

Potential severe weather is always a concern, particularly at night since most people are sleeping. AccuWeather forecasters caution people in the threat zone to have a way to receive timely weather alerts if a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued for their location.

With Christmas just around the corner, many people have set up outdoor holiday decorations. These decorations can add to the debris that a potential tornado may be able to gather.

Even without any twisters, strong winds and heavy rain will present concerns. Some of the winds may be damaging as gusts may reach an AccuWeather Local StormMax™of 75 mph in spots.

Storms should move quickly enough to limit flooding concerns, but some areas may be on the receiving end of multiple lines of thunderstorms, which would raise the risk of flash flooding.

Thunderstorms will continue to move eastward on Saturday. The risk for severe weather will be lower than on Friday, but cities as far north as Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., may be at risk for strong thunderstorms to begin the weekend.

As a strong cold front advances eastward and the storm system remains quite powerful, gusts frequenting 30-50 mph with locally higher speeds are likely from the Great Lakes to the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

The gusts at the start of the weekend can occur in intense showers, brief thunderstorms and even in the absence of rain. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 80 mph can occur along the shores of the Great Lakes on Saturday. The strong winds pushing on the water can lead to lakeshore flooding along the Great Lakes, while brief gusts can make for difficult travel and could lead to airline delays.

The cold front will move off the East Coast late on Saturday night, and no severe weather is expected on Sunday.

More to read:

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For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.

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