Severe storms, tornadoes to sweep through South during 1st days of 2023
AccuWeather meteorologists say the storms will be capable of producing damaging straight-line winds and tornadoes.
Residents of the southern United States are no strangers to severe weather, with routine rounds of heavy rain, thunderstorms and even hail or tornadoes common throughout much of the year. With a large, potent storm system moving into the central United States, AccuWeather forecasters say potentially damaging storms are in the cards for much of the region to start the new year, and a variety of severe weather hazards are expected.
On New Year's Day, the source of these intense storms was still well to the west. But on Monday, accumulating snow will be ongoing in the central and southern Rockies, as well as around the Four Corners region, with rain at lower elevations. However, this storm will slowly move eastward into the Plains and intensify in the process. This will allow severe thunderstorms to develop starting on Monday afternoon and continuing through at least Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a steady wind from the south will bring moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, a key ingredient for thunderstorm development. High temperatures across the Southeast will also be well above normal in many areas.
In Houston and New Orleans, temperatures approached the 80 degree Farhenheit mark on Monday afternoon. This is quite unusual for the time of year, with the daily record high at 81 degrees in both cities.
Farther north, in cities such as Little Rock, Arkansas, and Memphis, Tennessee, temperatures that peaked within a few degrees of 70 were just as unusual, falling just shy of daily record highs.
"A dip in the jet stream will bring the strongest upper-level winds into the southern U.S. When combined with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and substantially above-average temperatures, the setup will be in place for severe thunderstorms to form," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva explained.
The chance of severe storms will start with a bang by Monday evening, which will likely be the most active portion of the severe weather threat this week. During the afternoon hours on Monday, thunderstorms were becoming more numerous and gaining intensity from eastern Texas, northward to central Kansas and as far to the east as western Tennessee. Some locations may be hit with not only multiple rounds of thunderstorms, but perhaps two rounds or more of severe weather.
A tornado was picked up on radar Monday afternoon near Jessieville, Arkansas, approximately 60 miles west of Little Rock, with a reported "brief touchdown" causing damage to at least 14 homes, multiple commercial buildings and several buildings at a local school district, including a local high school.
Trees and powerlines fell while school was in session, according to the Garland County Sheriff's Office, but no injuries were reported and all students and staff were accounted for. Most of Jessieville was reported to be without power following the storm.
Tornado watches are in place until later Monday evening in cities such as Little Rock, Tulsa, Oklahoma and Shreveport, Louisiana. The second tornado of Monday was picked up by radar in Jonesboro, Louisiana, about 80 miles east of Shreveport, in the late afternoon hours, with local firefighters confirming damage east of the town.
Downpours may be intense enough or repeat frequently enough to lead to localized urban and small stream flash flooding into Tuesday. The risk is greatest from parts of the Ozark Mountains to portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.
In addition to common threats such as lightning and heavy rain, damaging straight-line winds are expected from some storms. With plenty of cold air above the surface given the time of year, hail will be a concern as well. Finally, with ample wind shear in the atmosphere, the setup on Monday should promote at least a few tornadoes, which could even become strong and long-tracked, AccuWeather forecasters say.
Those within the severe threat areas should monitor conditions closely, and keep an eye on the latest watches and warnings for your location, experts say. Should a tornado warning be issued, the lowest and most interior room of a well-built structure will be the safest place to ride out the storm.
"The extent of the tornado threat will depend on whether storms can remain separated, which would allow for a few intense, large tornadoes to form. If this does not occur, and storms form into a line, damaging winds would become the primary hazard," AccuWeather Meteorologist Haley Taylor explained.
Those traveling will want to allow increased time to reach their destination. Heavily traveled roadways such as interstates 20, 30 and 55 will be impacted. Major airline hubs such as Dallas and Houston may experience delays and cancellations, which can also cause far-reaching impacts at other airports.
Severe weather will continue farther to the east on Tuesday as a line of intense thunderstorms begins to push east of the Mississippi River along the Interstate 10 and 20 corridors, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
By the middle to late portions of the week, dry conditions are set to return to nearly all of the Southeast.
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