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Rain, severe thunderstorms to ease fire risk in Florida this weekend

Rain from a slow-moving storm may bring drought and wildfire relief to Florida, along with disruptions to the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Miami this weekend.

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published May 1, 2026 2:29 PM EDT | Updated May 1, 2026 3:30 PM EDT

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Rain on the first weekend of May will help reduce wildfire risks, at least temporarily.

The same storm responsible for soaking rain and severe weather in Texas and other parts of the south-central United States will swing toward the southern Atlantic coast this weekend. The system will bring drenching rain and some drought and wildfire relief, but it may also cause locally damaging thunderstorms and flash flooding across parts of Florida.

Ahead of the downpours and thunderstorms, an elevated wildfire risk will persist through Saturday. Ongoing drought, combined with hot, breezy conditions, will increase the risk of rapid fire ignition and spread across central and southern parts of the Florida Peninsula.

Ahead of the rain, temperatures will climb into the 90s on Saturday across much of the peninsula.

Miami’s daily record high of 92 degrees, set in 2005, could be tied or broken, along with other record highs across central and southern parts of the peninsula on Saturday.

Farther north, thunderstorms will erupt and limit the heat across the northern peninsula, while soaking rain keeps temperatures in check over the central and western panhandle.

A general 1–2 inches of rain is forecast across the northern part of the state, with locally higher amounts.

The risk of severe weather will extend to cities including Gainesville, Jacksonville, Daytona Beach, The Villages, Orlando and Tampa. Most locations in this zone should experience at least a couple of downpours and a gusty thunderstorm.

However, some of the stronger storms may produce damaging wind gusts, hail, flash flooding and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. People spending time outdoors should remain alert for rapidly changing weather conditions.

As a cold front associated with the system moves southward, the main focus of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday will shift to the southern third of the peninsula and the Florida Keys.

There are indications that a wave of low pressure may develop along the front as it pushes through South Florida which could enhance thunderstorms, leading to torrential downpours, flash flooding and locally strong wind gusts.

Rain gear to be needed for Formula 1

Heavy rain could adversely affect the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Miami later Sunday afternoon and evening. Rainfall of 1–2 inches may occur within a couple of hours, and if the system reaches its full potential, totals could double, leading to street flooding.

Farther north, in the wake of Sunday’s rain and thunderstorms, humidity levels will drop as cooler conditions move in.

Some areas south of Interstate 4 and near Lake Okeechobee may receive little to no rain from this system.

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