Flood-weary Texas, Louisiana facing more downpours
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Jun 6, 2021 10:27 AM EDT
Showers and thunderstorms are seen on radar across portions of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana late Saturday night, June 5, 2021. (AccuWeather)
The forecast is not good news for those hoping for a long stretch of dry weather across waterlogged parts of the south-central United States, AccuWeather forecasters say.
As much more rain is forecast to pour down on portions of the south-central U.S. and the northwestern Gulf Coast region into the week, the likelihood of urban and river flooding will increase with the potential for dangerous flash flooding where downpours are most persistent.
More flooding is almost a certainty in the region, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
"How much rain falls [and] how often will determine the severity and extent of flooding into the week," Buckingham stated.
At the very least, disruptions to travel and outdoor plans are likely to continue in the wet pattern.
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Even in the number of locations that have not experienced flooding problems, there have been many more days with rain than dry days since May 10. While the intense Texas and Louisiana sunshine this time of the year can evaporate a great deal of moisture, sunny days have been limited, and ground conditions remain moist to saturated in many cases.
The wet state of the soil means that much of the rain that falls moving forward in the short term will run off, rather than soak in. It is the runoff that will have low-lying areas taking on water and lead to small stream, bayou and river flooding.
"The combination of a slow-moving storm in the middle levels of the atmosphere and a stream of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will add more rainy days and incidents of flooding through at least the middle of this week," Buckingham said.
Even without much moisture, the storm would be able to generate showers and thunderstorms, due to cool air well above the ground. This setup allows clouds to tower skyward and produce downpours and gusty storms.
"Throw in a rich supply of moisture, and the situation becomes much more substantial in terms of the intensity and frequency of the downpours and the amount of rain that can be released," Buckingham said.
Other factors are the slow movement of the storm and the likelihood that moisture will continue to stream in from the Gulf of Mexico after its departure. This setup can produce bands of excessive rainfall and flooding on a more regional basis.
Lastly, "the fact that much of this zone received 10-20 inches of rain during May, or two to four times the normal monthly rainfall, and the makings for dangerous flash flooding or perhaps a flooding disaster are in place," Buckingham said.
Victoria, Texas, which just had its wettest May on record with 20.28 inches, may also set a May-June combined rainfall record as well. As of June 5, rainfall since May 1 had reached 25.33 inches and was less than an inch away from breaking the May-June rainfall record of 26.16 inches set in 2004.
Other locations where the two-month record rainfall may be challenged include Lake Charles, Louisiana, and Houston and Corpus Christi, Texas.
At Lake Charles, the all-time May-June rainfall record is 32.89 inches. As of June 5, the city had received 23.54 inches of rain since May 1.
At Houston's Intercontinental Airport, the May-June rainfall record is 29.84 inches with the total through May 1 at a more distant 16.29 inches.
As of Friday, June 5, Houston has measured rain 20 out of the last 24 days, the NWS office in Houston said.
However, records at all of these locations and others are in jeopardy as the pattern is that loaded for excessive rainfall.
A general 5-10 inches of rain is forecast to fall from Friday, June 4, through Wednesday, June 9, from central Texas to central Louisiana. Not every location will receive that much rain, but some places could receive much more. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches is attainable in a few locations and most likely within that zone.
It will not rain continuously in the area where the heaviest rain is forecast, but when it does rain the downpours can be torrential and result in serious flash and urban flooding. This will bring the risk of significant rises on local area rivers and bayous which result in the potential for a flooding disaster.
Downpours can also be substantial and result in flooding outside of the area of heaviest predicted rainfall.
Most of the major rivers from Texas to Louisiana were slowly receding as of Saturday, June 5. Runoff from the mid-May deluge was finally cycling downward. However, water levels on any of the rivers were still well above flood stage and may not take as long to rise and reach major flood stage levels during a prolonged heavy rain setup, such as the one lurking into the week.
In response to more recent heavy rain, multiple rivers in South Texas were on the rise Friday. The Aransas River near Skidmore, Texas, had surged to 26 feet and was 6 feet above major flood stage. At this level, some secondary roads are inundated as well as agricultural tracts.
Some improvement is forecast for portions of central Texas beyond this weekend as the mid-level storm is expected to drift northward. Areas farther to the east may remain under a fire hose of moisture that is likely to be turned off and on at random by Mother Nature. Still, spotty showers and thunderstorms may continue to erupt as far west as west-central Texas.
There also remains a remote chance a weak tropical disturbance may pop up into the week. Such disturbances have formed in the past when atmospheric pressure is suppressed and complexes of thunderstorms move from the land to the Gulf.
Looking ahead to later this month, AccuWeather meteorologists are watching the zone close to Central America for slow development toward the middle of June. If a tropical feature develops in that region, it would have to be closely watched for any move toward the saturated zone from Texas to Louisiana down the road.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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News / Severe Weather
Flood-weary Texas, Louisiana facing more downpours
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Jun 6, 2021 10:27 AM EDT
Showers and thunderstorms are seen on radar across portions of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana late Saturday night, June 5, 2021. (AccuWeather)
The forecast is not good news for those hoping for a long stretch of dry weather across waterlogged parts of the south-central United States, AccuWeather forecasters say.
As much more rain is forecast to pour down on portions of the south-central U.S. and the northwestern Gulf Coast region into the week, the likelihood of urban and river flooding will increase with the potential for dangerous flash flooding where downpours are most persistent.
More flooding is almost a certainty in the region, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
"How much rain falls [and] how often will determine the severity and extent of flooding into the week," Buckingham stated.
At the very least, disruptions to travel and outdoor plans are likely to continue in the wet pattern.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Even in the number of locations that have not experienced flooding problems, there have been many more days with rain than dry days since May 10. While the intense Texas and Louisiana sunshine this time of the year can evaporate a great deal of moisture, sunny days have been limited, and ground conditions remain moist to saturated in many cases.
The wet state of the soil means that much of the rain that falls moving forward in the short term will run off, rather than soak in. It is the runoff that will have low-lying areas taking on water and lead to small stream, bayou and river flooding.
"The combination of a slow-moving storm in the middle levels of the atmosphere and a stream of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will add more rainy days and incidents of flooding through at least the middle of this week," Buckingham said.
Even without much moisture, the storm would be able to generate showers and thunderstorms, due to cool air well above the ground. This setup allows clouds to tower skyward and produce downpours and gusty storms.
"Throw in a rich supply of moisture, and the situation becomes much more substantial in terms of the intensity and frequency of the downpours and the amount of rain that can be released," Buckingham said.
Other factors are the slow movement of the storm and the likelihood that moisture will continue to stream in from the Gulf of Mexico after its departure. This setup can produce bands of excessive rainfall and flooding on a more regional basis.
Lastly, "the fact that much of this zone received 10-20 inches of rain during May, or two to four times the normal monthly rainfall, and the makings for dangerous flash flooding or perhaps a flooding disaster are in place," Buckingham said.
Victoria, Texas, which just had its wettest May on record with 20.28 inches, may also set a May-June combined rainfall record as well. As of June 5, rainfall since May 1 had reached 25.33 inches and was less than an inch away from breaking the May-June rainfall record of 26.16 inches set in 2004.
Other locations where the two-month record rainfall may be challenged include Lake Charles, Louisiana, and Houston and Corpus Christi, Texas.
At Lake Charles, the all-time May-June rainfall record is 32.89 inches. As of June 5, the city had received 23.54 inches of rain since May 1.
At Houston's Intercontinental Airport, the May-June rainfall record is 29.84 inches with the total through May 1 at a more distant 16.29 inches.
As of Friday, June 5, Houston has measured rain 20 out of the last 24 days, the NWS office in Houston said.
However, records at all of these locations and others are in jeopardy as the pattern is that loaded for excessive rainfall.
A general 5-10 inches of rain is forecast to fall from Friday, June 4, through Wednesday, June 9, from central Texas to central Louisiana. Not every location will receive that much rain, but some places could receive much more. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches is attainable in a few locations and most likely within that zone.
It will not rain continuously in the area where the heaviest rain is forecast, but when it does rain the downpours can be torrential and result in serious flash and urban flooding. This will bring the risk of significant rises on local area rivers and bayous which result in the potential for a flooding disaster.
Downpours can also be substantial and result in flooding outside of the area of heaviest predicted rainfall.
Most of the major rivers from Texas to Louisiana were slowly receding as of Saturday, June 5. Runoff from the mid-May deluge was finally cycling downward. However, water levels on any of the rivers were still well above flood stage and may not take as long to rise and reach major flood stage levels during a prolonged heavy rain setup, such as the one lurking into the week.
Related:
In response to more recent heavy rain, multiple rivers in South Texas were on the rise Friday. The Aransas River near Skidmore, Texas, had surged to 26 feet and was 6 feet above major flood stage. At this level, some secondary roads are inundated as well as agricultural tracts.
Some improvement is forecast for portions of central Texas beyond this weekend as the mid-level storm is expected to drift northward. Areas farther to the east may remain under a fire hose of moisture that is likely to be turned off and on at random by Mother Nature. Still, spotty showers and thunderstorms may continue to erupt as far west as west-central Texas.
There also remains a remote chance a weak tropical disturbance may pop up into the week. Such disturbances have formed in the past when atmospheric pressure is suppressed and complexes of thunderstorms move from the land to the Gulf.
Looking ahead to later this month, AccuWeather meteorologists are watching the zone close to Central America for slow development toward the middle of June. If a tropical feature develops in that region, it would have to be closely watched for any move toward the saturated zone from Texas to Louisiana down the road.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo