Atlantic continues to be monitored for tropical development
ByRyan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist
Updated Jun 7, 2021 1:06 PM EDT
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The AccuWeather team of tropical forecasters is keeping an eye out for potential development in the coming days as meteorologists expect one key ingredient for cyclonic activity to become a factor in the coming weeks.
During the final week of May and the first official week of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1, conditions have not been conducive for tropical development as moderate to strong wind shear has been in place over some key areas.
But this is the time of year that tropical forecasters typically turn their attention to three primary areas -- the Gulf of Mexico, the southwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea -- for what meteorologists often refer to as "homebrew storms," or cyclones that develop not far off the U.S., Mexico and Central America coasts.
By the middle of this week, wind shear is expected to decrease across the Gulf of Mexico, southwestern Atlantic and Caribbean.
Dust is seen pouring off the coast of Africa on June 6, 2021. The dust cloud is slowly drifting over parts of the Atlantic and toward the Caribbean. The Atlantic is currently without any organized tropical systems early in the hurricane season, but that could change in the coming weeks. (Photo/NOAA GOES East)
Wind shear is the change in direction or increase in speed of breezes from near the sea surface to higher levels in the atmosphere. The presence of wind shear tends to inhibit tropical development since wind shear prevents thunderstorms from organizing around an area of low pressure. Without thunderstorms, a low-pressure system is unlikely to strengthen into a tropical system.
"We are continuing to monitor the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean for potential development around the middle of June," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Late in the week or this weekend, an area of thunderstorms may begin to develop over the southern Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea.
"From later this week and into next week, we still expect a gyre to set up across or near Central America," Douty said.
A gyre is a broad area of slowly spinning air that rotates counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. A gyre by itself generally does not produce high winds and severe weather, but it can help spawn disturbances that can escalate these conditions.
The formation of this gyre, along with a reduction in wind shear and increase in tropical moisture, can lead to the development of more widespread thunderstorm activity and lower atmospheric pressures, according to Douty.
An alternate scenario, instead of a system on the Caribbean side, will be for these showers and thunderstorms to develop over the Pacific Ocean to the south of Mexico.
To the north of Puerto Rico, a second area of clouds and thunderstorms may attempt to organize by Thursday or Friday. The feature would then move northward to the east of Bermuda by this weekend. If something were to develop, it would be unlikely to affect land.
Before hurricane season officially began, Tropical Storm Ana formed, initially as a subtropical system before being upgraded, early on the morning of May 22 just to the northeast of Bermuda. The storm quickly dissipated on the evening of May 23. Since then, the Atlantic Ocean has been devoid of tropical activity.
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News / Hurricane
Atlantic continues to be monitored for tropical development
By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist
Updated Jun 7, 2021 1:06 PM EDT
The AccuWeather team of tropical forecasters is keeping an eye out for potential development in the coming days as meteorologists expect one key ingredient for cyclonic activity to become a factor in the coming weeks.
During the final week of May and the first official week of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1, conditions have not been conducive for tropical development as moderate to strong wind shear has been in place over some key areas.
But this is the time of year that tropical forecasters typically turn their attention to three primary areas -- the Gulf of Mexico, the southwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea -- for what meteorologists often refer to as "homebrew storms," or cyclones that develop not far off the U.S., Mexico and Central America coasts.
By the middle of this week, wind shear is expected to decrease across the Gulf of Mexico, southwestern Atlantic and Caribbean.
Dust is seen pouring off the coast of Africa on June 6, 2021. The dust cloud is slowly drifting over parts of the Atlantic and toward the Caribbean. The Atlantic is currently without any organized tropical systems early in the hurricane season, but that could change in the coming weeks. (Photo/NOAA GOES East)
Wind shear is the change in direction or increase in speed of breezes from near the sea surface to higher levels in the atmosphere. The presence of wind shear tends to inhibit tropical development since wind shear prevents thunderstorms from organizing around an area of low pressure. Without thunderstorms, a low-pressure system is unlikely to strengthen into a tropical system.
"We are continuing to monitor the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean for potential development around the middle of June," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Late in the week or this weekend, an area of thunderstorms may begin to develop over the southern Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea.
"From later this week and into next week, we still expect a gyre to set up across or near Central America," Douty said.
A gyre is a broad area of slowly spinning air that rotates counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. A gyre by itself generally does not produce high winds and severe weather, but it can help spawn disturbances that can escalate these conditions.
The formation of this gyre, along with a reduction in wind shear and increase in tropical moisture, can lead to the development of more widespread thunderstorm activity and lower atmospheric pressures, according to Douty.
An alternate scenario, instead of a system on the Caribbean side, will be for these showers and thunderstorms to develop over the Pacific Ocean to the south of Mexico.
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To the north of Puerto Rico, a second area of clouds and thunderstorms may attempt to organize by Thursday or Friday. The feature would then move northward to the east of Bermuda by this weekend. If something were to develop, it would be unlikely to affect land.
Before hurricane season officially began, Tropical Storm Ana formed, initially as a subtropical system before being upgraded, early on the morning of May 22 just to the northeast of Bermuda. The storm quickly dissipated on the evening of May 23. Since then, the Atlantic Ocean has been devoid of tropical activity.
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