Rain to unleash flooding in Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana
Heavy rain and flooding continues in central and eastern Texas and will spread to parts of Louisiana and Arkansas into the end of the week.
AccuWeather Flood Expert Alex Sosnowski discusses the rain and potential flooding in Texas.
Inches of rain are pouring down in parts of central and eastern Texas and will slowly shift eastward into portions of Louisiana and expand over Arkansas into the end of the week. The consequences of half a foot of rain or more in some communities can lead to dangerous flash flooding, as well as significant rises on some of the rivers in the region.
Downpours will be strewn across the Interstate 10 and 20 corridors of the southern United States from New Mexico and Texas to Florida, Georgia and South Carolina into Thursday night. In some instances, the heavy rain will be associated with gusty and severe thunderstorms.
Some of the most intense thunderstorms from large complexes will focus on parts of Texas into Thursday night, with some areas potentially blasted by more than one severe storm with high winds, hail and flash flooding in 24 hours.
A storm swinging out from northern Mexico will track across the South Central states into Friday, setting the stage for thunderstorms to erupt in a very moist environment created by the Gulf.
This setup will unleash the tremendous amounts of moisture in the atmosphere in the form of torrential downpours where 1-3 inches of rain can pour down in as many hours.
This alone can trigger rapid flooding of city streets, turn dry washes into raging torrents and lead to rapid rises on some streams and rivers in the region from central Texas to central Arkansas, including southeastern Oklahoma and western Louisiana.
"Some of the heaviest rain and perhaps a concentration of flash flooding is likely to occur along and just southeast of the I-35 corridor of Texas and southern Oklahoma," AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker said. Some of the torrential downpours are forecast to visit the Houston area often enough to trigger localized flash flooding as well.
Where the downpours repeat over a number of days, 8-12 inches of rain could fall in localized areas, which can lead to flooding on a more regional basis.
In the first eight hours of Thursday, 6.12 inches of rain poured down on San Antonio. This is about six times the historical average rain for the entire month. The torrential downpours unleashed deadly flash flooding. At least with a bit of good news for San Antonio and the immediate I-35 corridor is the heaviest rain has shifted to the east and closer to the Texas coast.
Some of the rivers in the region that will experience flooding include the San Antonio, Neches, Trinity, Brazos, Angelina and Sabine, as well as the Bayou Dorcheat.
Much of the zone where the heaviest rain will fall is not in drought, as downpours since the early spring have replenished soil moisture and then some.
There are some areas, mainly south and west of Austin, where drought is serious and any non-flooding rainfall would be welcomed. However, even in part of this zone of south-central Texas, too much rain can fall too fast and lead to dangerous flash flooding.
"In Texas, many droughts end in floods," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, "However, in this case, flash flooding won't discriminate between drought and saturated areas."
Heading into the Father's Day weekend, the rainfall will become more sporadic. However, there can still be a few pockets where the rain is heavy enough to trigger spotty flash flooding problems. Many of the rivers in the region will be running high and may not crest until next week. This means, at the very least, that some low-lying recreation areas may be inaccessible due to high water. Fast-moving water may be unsafe for pleasure boating and fishing.
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