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News / Hurricane

Tropical storm warning issued for Puerto Rico as Grace nears

By Jessica Storm, AccuWeather Meteorologist

Published Aug 13, 2021 8:56 AM EDT | Updated Aug 15, 2021 10:29 AM EDT

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As Tropical Depression Fred continued across the Caribbean on Aug. 12, the Dominican Republic dealt with serious flooding that left streets underwater.

Many eyes are on Tropical Storm Fred as it crawls toward Florida, but AccuWeather forecasters have also been watching another emerging tropical threat in the Atlantic. The system strengthened enough to be named Tropical Storm Grace by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) early Saturday morning.

Well behind Fred, Tropical Storm Grace came together early Saturday morning over the open Atlantic. As of 6 a.m. EDT on Sunday morning, it was about 60 miles (100 km) east-southeast of St. Croix, moving to the west-northwest at 16 mph (26 km/h). The system was packing 40 mph (65 km/h) sustained winds.

This infrared satellite image shows Tropical Storm Grace in the afternoon of Saturday, Aug. 14, 2021, approaching the Leeward Islands (Image/CIRA/RAMMB).

Tropical storm warnings have gone into effect for Saba, Sint Eustatius, Sint Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra and the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Samana. Tropical storm watches are in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Cabo Caucedo, the north coast of the Dominican republic from the Haitian border to Samana and the entire coast of Haiti.

In anticipation of Grace's impacts early in the week, Puerto Rican Gov. Pedro Pierluisi announced in a press conference that the island's National Guard was standing by to assist residents during the storm, in addition to establishing storm shelters. Pierluisi also postponed the start of public school classes until Wednesday.

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AccuWeather forecasters predict Grace will continue to move westward over the next several days, following a roughly similar path that Fred did in its early stages of development. However, some atmospheric factors have the potential to cause this new storm to track somewhat differently to the path Fred has taken through the Caribbean.

Like Fred, Grace is anticipated to encounter some obstacles that could limit its ability to strengthen, forecasters say.

"Grace is embedded within an area of drier air and has some African dust to its north and west which is working to slow development," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

Wind shear is also expected to increase early this week as the system tracks towards the Bahamas, southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the northern Caribbean Sea.

The strongest wind gusts with Grace are likely to target the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as well as Puerto Rico on Sunday. It is in this area that the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph is most likely. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, wind gusts of 40-60 mph (60-100 km/h) are expected from Grace.

The developing storm looks to be a significant rain producer, according to forecasters, as it swirls over the Caribbean into the week. Islands like Puerto Rico could see 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) of rain and some locally higher amounts near the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches (300 mm).

The heavy, tropical rainfall is also forecast to impact southwestern Haiti, which will be recovering from a strong 7.2 earthquake that hit near Saint-Louis Du Sud on Saturday morning.

Buildings collapsed during the earthquake and rain and wind from Grace could complicate rescue and cleanup efforts through the first part of the week.

Many of these locations just got drenched with several inches of rainfall from Fred a few days ago.

Next in line for impacts would be the southeastern United States, but any impacts will depend on a host of factors that AccuWeather forecasters are continuing to monitor.

Grace is expected to bring impacts to the U.S. by the end of this week if it maintains organization.

"Indications point towards Grace tracking slightly farther to the north compared to Fred, so places like the U.S. and the British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico could endure greater impacts compared to Fred," Douty said.

This more northward path would keep the storm away from the mountainous and larger islands of the northern Caribbean. With a potential track over more open water, there might be more opportunity for Grace to strengthen at a much faster pace when compared to Fred most recently and Elsa during early July.

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