Tropical Rainstorm Lorena drenches Mexico before flooding rain may spread to southwestern U.S.
Tropical Storm Lorena is bringing dangerous flooding, wind and heavy surf to Mexico, while parts of the U.S. Southwest may face flooding depending on the storm and other factors.
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While two tropical cyclones are active in the eastern Pacific basin, the immediate concern is Tropical Rainstorm Lorena, which is bringing direct impacts to Mexico and will bring indirect impacts to the United States, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
Dry air, cool water and land interaction were taking a toll on Lorena as the center of the storm had become altered. On Friday morning, Lorena has become a tropical rainstorm just off the west coast of the Baja Peninsula of Mexico.
This image, captured on Friday morning, Sept. 5, 2025, shows that Lorena has been ripped apart by strong upper-level winds. The bulk of Lorena's moisture can be seen over northern Mexico. However, the low-level circulation (barely visible) hovers just to the west of the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
“The magnitude of Lorena’s impacts in the U.S. will depend heavily on the track of its moisture,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Steering currents on Friday will ultimately determine whether Lorena makes landfall in Mexico’s Baja Peninsula as a tropical rainstorm. It is likely that these steering breezes will prevent Lorena from making landfall.
Dangerous flash flood risk in US with or without Lorena
“It is likely that the storm remains offshore, slows down along the western Mexico coast, or rapidly loses wind intensity and organization over cooler Pacific waters has become the most likely scenario,” DaSilva said.
Despite the demise of the wind center of the storm, moisture will be sheared off to the northeast across northern Mexico and then part of the southern U.S. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the U.S. is less than one.
However, a front is forecast to slowly drift south over the Plains this weekend into early next week around the same time of the moisture surge from Lorena, bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Such a scenario could unleash many inches of rain and widespread flash flooding in Texas and in parts of New Mexico and Oklahoma. However, the slow movement of the front alone, with Lorena's absence, can still lead to heavy enough rainfall to cause sporadic flash flooding.
At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists are focusing on portions of southern and western Texas that will receive the heaviest rainfall and the greatest risk of flash flooding on a local to regional basis.
"When this type of setup is coupled with abundant tropical moisture, as we expect over Texas this weekend, rain rates of 2-3 inches of rain per hour can occur, leading to significant flash flooding and rapidly rising water," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said. "Even more extreme flash flooding can occur in localized areas near the most persistent downpours."
“We urge people and businesses to have a way to get flash flood warnings at all times of the day and night and be prepared to move to higher ground, especially if you are in a low-lying area or near small streams or shallow rivers, as these areas can be particularly susceptible to rapidly rising water," Porter added.
Dangerous conditions to continue in Mexico from Lorena
A tropical storm warning was discontinued in Mexico as of late Thursday.
Dangerous seas and surf are expected to continue into Saturday along the Baja Peninsula and parts of Mexico’s western mainland coast. Rain will be the main risk to lives and property in Mexico for the storm's duration.
“Lorena will bring heavy rain to southern Baja California through Saturday, which could lead to life-threatening flooding,” DaSilva said.
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico is a one.
Elsewhere in the Pacific, Hurricane Kiko is forecast to peak at Category 4 intensity in the short term and could approach Hawaii with possible significant impacts by the middle of next week.
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