Dangerous flash flooding risk in Texas as Lorena, Gulf moisture gather
Moisture from Tropical Rainstorm Lorena, the Gulf and a stalled front will converge over Texas this weekend into early next week, bringing the risk of dangerous flash flooding, including the Hill Country.
The National Weather Service warned Wichita of 60-mph winds and tennis ball-sized hail with a severe thunderstorm warning in effect until 9 p.m.
Moisture from the Gulf, Tropical Rainstorm Lorena and a cool front will converge over parts of Texas, raising the risk of localized but dangerous flash flooding from this weekend into early next week, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
Combative winds that weakened Lorena will steer its moisture northeastward from Mexico into Texas into this weekend. The old center of Lorena will diminish off the coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula.
As a front drops southward and stalls over Texas, additional moisture may be squeezed from the atmosphere this weekend. From Sunday to Monday, a return flow from the Gulf will send more moisture streaming northwestward across the state.
“Rainfall rates of 2–3 inches per hour are possible, leading to significant flash flooding and rapidly rising water in localized areas,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.
Downpours capable of producing flash flooding will be most common in western and southern Texas. The Texas Hill Country, just west of San Antonio, is especially vulnerable to flash flooding and lies within the higher-risk zone for this event.
A complicating factor will be the potential for one or two thunderstorm complexes to track southeastward along the stalled front later this weekend into early next week. On July 4, a large complex produced many inches of rain over the Guadalupe River basin, causing deadly flooding.
This setup, which appears less extreme than that of early July, will not be limited to the Guadalupe but could also impact much of the Rio Grande Valley. Intense rain may still fall in isolated areas, bringing significant flash flooding to some rural locations and neighborhoods.
Low water crossings could be especially dangerous.
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In addition to San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, cities at risk for flash flooding this weekend into early next week include Laredo, Del Rio, San Angelo, McAllen and Brownsville.
“We urge people and businesses to have a way to receive flash flood warnings at all times and to be ready to move to higher ground, especially in low-lying neighborhoods or near small streams and rivers, which can be particularly susceptible to rapidly rising water,” Porter said.
Areas forecast to receive the heaviest downpours could receive 1–6 inches of rain, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 11 inches. Many of these areas are in drought, with conditions along much of the Rio Grande Valley ranging from abnormally dry to extreme drought.
Drier air will spread from the Mississippi Valley into much of Texas from Tuesday to next Friday.
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