Gulf on alert for hurricanes during 2nd half of September
There is growing concern of dangerous storms brewing close to the United States later this month with AccuWeather predicting a surge in tropical activity.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter explains the increasing concern around the growing hurricane risk in the Gulf of America in mid- to late September.
The unusually quiet start to September in the tropics may not last much longer. A surge in tropical development is expected around the middle of the month, AccuWeather hurricane experts warn. The Gulf and Caribbean, in particular, could breed dangerous hurricanes that quickly strengthen and threaten coastal communities.
"Atmospheric conditions will be primed for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop by mid-September," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, adding that there will be less dry air, Saharan dust, and disruptive wind shear across much of the main development region in the Atlantic and the Gulf.
The Gulf has been virtually untouched this hurricane season, with short-lived Tropical Storm Barry in June being the only storm to move through the region this year. The absence of activity has allowed the water to become incredibly warm, priming the Gulf for fast-developing storms.
"If anything goes in there, it almost certainly will become a major hurricane," DaSilva said.
"The ocean heat content, or the depth of warm ocean water in the Gulf and western Caribbean, is just below record high levels," DaSilva added. "This is extremely concerning."
Warm water is the fuel for hurricanes, and the Gulf is like a giant bathtub at this point in the year with water temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F.
"That's warm water that can be rocket fuel for a developing hurricane," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.
The stage is now set for rapid intensification, when a storm's maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less. This sudden burst of strength can change how people prepare for a land-bound storm and make time-sensitive actions, like evacuations, much harder to carry out.
This graphic shows the current Ocean Heat Content (OHC) across the Gulf year to date compared to previous years. The OHC across the Gulf is nearly the warmest on record, only trailing 2024. Image courtesy of The University of Miami.
Rapid intensification has become more common in the Gulf in recent years, with catastrophic hurricanes Helene, Michael and Ian all quickly strengthening as they approached land.
Erin took this to another level in August over the Atlantic Ocean, when winds spiked 85 mph in 24 hours and 20 minutes, causing it to evolve from a Category 1 to a Category 5. This is a form of "extreme rapid intensification," according to DaSilva, which is typically defined as winds increasing 58 mph in 24 hours.
A satellite loop of Hurricane Erin on Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025. (AccuWeather)
Now is the time for residents in hurricane-prone areas to prepare by having supplies ready and a plan in place should a storm threaten.
"AccuWeather hurricane experts continue to highlight northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas as areas of higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season," DaSilva said.
"Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands, are also at an increased risk of direct impacts for the rest of the season," he added.
Hurricane and tropical storm landfalls during past years that have had weather patterns similar to current and projected weather patterns, known as analog years. Circled areas denote clustering of landfalls. Circled areas have a higher chance than the historical average of being directly impacted by a tropical storm or hurricane this season.
The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Wednesday, Sept. 10, but with the anticipated surge in activity, most of the storms and hurricanes in 2025 are expected to unfold in the weeks that follow.
A budding tropical rainstorm is forecast to bring direct impacts as a hurricane to the Leeward Islands in the northeast Caribbean next week.
Report a Typo
