Flood risk to accompany rounds of severe weather in central US through Sunday
Rounds of heavy rain will bring drought relief to parts of the central U.S., but the soaking could trigger flooding from Texas to the Ohio Valley, while melting ice raises ice jam concerns in the Northeast.
AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Joe Lundberg looks ahead to this week, particularly from March 5-11. From Texas to the Ohio Valley, there is a rising concern for the risk of severe weather and flooding.
Much-needed rain will drench large parts of the central United States over the next week, bringing relief to areas that have struggled with drought since last autumn. However, the beneficial rain may also result in flooding in some communities.
Multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms will unfold as a series of storms track from Texas and the southern part of the Great Plains into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Warm, moisture-rich air from the Gulf will clash with lingering cold air in the Northeast, leading to snow and ice there, while severe thunderstorms target parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
While locally heavy rain and sporadic flooding are possible along this roughly 1,500-mile-long area, two primary areas are expected to get the heaviest and most persistent rainfall at different times. A third flood zone will depend on how quickly the river ice breaks up.
Short-term flood threat from Missouri to West Virginia
One zone will stretch from the middle portion of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley through Thursday as a storm rides along a stalled frontal boundary. Rainfall totals will generally range from 1 to 4 inches, with a small area of 4 to 8 inches in central Indiana into western Ohio. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ is 8 inches.
Since Nov. 1, some areas in the Ohio and middle Mississippi basins have received only about 50% of their historical average rainfall.
The Ohio and Mississippi rivers are likely to experience only slight to moderate rises. However, secondary rivers and small streams in parts of Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia and western Pennsylvania can rise rapidly, leading to minor to moderate flooding.
Flood risk from Texas to Arkansas starting this weekend
Farther south, multiple storms will drench areas from part of the Rio Grande Valley of Texas to western Tennessee and far southern Illinois from Friday night to Sunday, with more rounds of rain to follow later next week. Rainfall totals from Friday night to Sunday will generally range from 1 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall for this event is 8 inches.
While the rain may not fall all at once, repeated rounds will first saturate the ground, then accelerate runoff. That setup is likely to trigger rapid small-stream and urban flooding, along with sharp rises on some secondary rivers.
Prime areas of concern include the hardpan soil regions of the Texas Hill Country. Kerrville and the site of deadly flooding on July 4, 2025, is currently in the highest flood-risk area. AccuWeather's team of meteorologists will continue to monitor the situation closely.
Large rivers in the south-central region, such as the Red and Mississippi rivers, will experience significant rises, but major flooding is unlikely due to their low starting water levels.
It is important to note that the time, intensity and duration of the rounds of heavy rain from Texas to part of the Mississippi Valley may be highly contingent on the behavior of a storm at the jet stream level of the atmosphere in the Southwestern states late this week to next week. If that storm's eastward shift is delayed, the heaviest rain may be delayed or last longer in some cases.
Ice-jam flood risk in Northeast to increase through March
Farther northeast, areas from parts of upstate New York to New England face additional flooding concerns as rising temperatures combine with melting snow and ice-clogged rivers and streams.
Weeks of severe cold allowed thick ice to form on area waterways. Some ice has begun to break up with few problems. However, when large sheets of ice move downstream, they can jam at bends or narrow points in rivers, triggering upstream flooding — followed by rapid downstream flooding if the jam suddenly breaks.
Enough cold air will linger over the northern tier of the Northeast to hold back the ice jam risk early in March. However, as the month progresses and the thaw advances, the risk will increase farther north.
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