Downpours may disrupt activities in northeast Caribbean around midweek
Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will push westward across the northeast Caribbean this week, while other areas across the Atlantic and Gulf are being monitored for tropical development.
As peak hurricane season arrives, abandoned boats pose a growing threat to safety and storm prep.
A batch of drenching downpours and gusty thunderstorms is forecast to slide across the northeastern Caribbean during the middle and latter part of this week. Several other areas in the Atlantic basin are being watched for tropical development.
As of Sunday afternoon, dry air and wind shear were limiting further development of a tropical rainstorm located about halfway across the Atlantic.
"The odds have markedly increased this weekend that the dry air could be so substantial that the rainstorm may struggle to further intensify and can even dissipate over the Atlantic Ocean prior to reaching the islands," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.
The batch of showers and thunderstorms is moving along through an extensive patch of dry air with moisture trailing behind. Thus far, moisture has failed to wrap into the storm because it has remained poorly organized. The dry air has all but ended any chance of a tropical storm from forming, let alone a hurricane.
By the middle of the week, the Leeward Islands and the northern part of the Windward Islands will experience an uptick in showers and gusty thunderstorms. Enough rain may fall in downpours to lead to sporadic flash flooding.
People and officials from the northern Windwards and Leewards to Puerto Rico (later in the week), including cruise, shipping and fishing interests, should take note of the situation. However, due to the dry air expanse, the risk of it evolving into a tropical storm seems highly unlikely.
There will be a zone where 1-2 inches of rain can fall, with locally higher amounts from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico. The heaviest rain will fall where thunderstorms cluster together or where mountains wring out extra moisture, such as perhaps in Puerto Rico.
More storms are likely later in September
Tropical waves continue to move from Africa to the Atlantic. One wave was moving off the African coast on Sunday, and another located over the African continent will move offshore in the week ahead.
“This particular wave may encounter less dry air and more favorable conditions for tropical development,” DaSilva said. However, that development risk remains low at this time.
AccuWeather meteorologists are also monitoring a non-tropical storm producing a swirl of clouds and thunderstorms about halfway between Bermuda and Hispaniola. Under the right conditions, this type of storm could acquire tropical characteristics. However, combative winds are strong in the path of this storm, and development is not anticipated at this time.
This time of the year, any cluster of showers and thunderstorms that organize in the Gulf and along the southern Atlantic Coast could evolve into a tropical storm, provided combative winds remain low and waters are warm.
Water temperatures in the Gulf and the Gulf Stream along the Florida, Georgia and Carolina coasts are sufficiently high for development and are running above the historical average. The cool pool of water from the wake of Erin in August is slowly fading.
"There is some indication that showers and thunderstorms may gather from the western Caribbean to the south-central Gulf near or just prior to the middle of the month," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "Because of the warm waters in the region, we will watch that closely as the combative winds currently over the region, and the southern Atlantic Coast could drop off."
The same combative winds should stay strong enough to prevent any tropical development in the Gulf or along the U.S. Atlantic coast over the next several days. However, if those winds were to drop off, it could be a different story.
A non-tropical storm is forecast to move northward just off the U.S. Atlantic coast early this week. A feature that forms over roughly the same waters next weekend could have a more favorable tropical environment, provided the combative winds back off.
Eerily quiet in the Atlantic
It is extremely rare not to have a named tropical storm from Sept. 1-15. The historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is around Sept. 10.
But, it was just last year, between Ernesto's demise on Aug. 20 and Francine's development on Sept. 9, that a 19-day gap occurred with no named tropical storms.
Because the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf remain warm well into autumn, many tropical storms and hurricanes typically develop from mid-September through October. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season went on to bring a total of 18 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, including five major hurricanes. The historical average for each is 14, seven and three, respectively.
Thus far, there have been six named storms, with Erin being the only hurricane and the only major hurricane. Erin peaked as a 160-mph Category 5 hurricane.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially continues through Nov. 30.
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