Kiko to impact Hawaii with wind, rain before mid-September
Hurricane Kiko is cruising westward over the Pacific and could bring heavy rain, flooding, strong winds and dangerous surf to Hawaii by the middle of the week, depending on its track and intensity.
While hurricanes have caused destruction in Hawaii before, landfalls are surprisingly rare considering the location in the middle of the ocean. AccuWeather’s Ariella Scalese explains why.
Hurricane Kiko, currently located about a bit closer to Hawaii than Mexico, could be steered close to the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of the week, and if the track shifts a bit farther south, it may make a rare landfall, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
As of late Saturday night local time, Hurricane Kiko was about 785 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, moving west-northwest at 12 mph. On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, had lost some wind intensity and is a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. Kiko has reached Category 4 intensity for three separate stretches over the past week and this weekend. Some additional fluctuations in strength may occur on Sunday.
This image of Kiko was captured on Sunday morning, Sept. 7, 2025, and shows the storm as a Category 3 (major) hurricane. Hawaii appears in the upper left. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
"Kiko will encounter cooler waters as it approaches Hawaii from the early to middle part of this week, which will cause it to gradually lose wind intensity, after fluctuation in strength this weekend,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “If Kiko passes directly over Hawaii, even as a less intense tropical storm, it could still bring significant wind and rain to the islands this week."
The Big Island and its high mountains often act as a barrier to westbound tropical storms and hurricanes, causing many to pass south or north of the island. However, even a near-miss by the eye can bring significant impacts, as rain and tropical-storm-force winds can extend hundreds of miles from the center.
The dashed red line represents AccuWeather meteorologists’ forecast path for the eye of Kiko. The gray shaded areas on either side of the forecast path represent alternative paths the hurricane could take based on changing steering conditions. Tropical storm (and hurricane) conditions will extend well beyond the eye's track.
Kiko is a relatively small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending at least 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds reaching 80 miles. Changes within the eye (eyewall replacement cycles) may reduce wind strength near the core but expand the storm’s wind and rain field, increasing the chance of impacts in Hawaii.
Impacts would be minimal only if Kiko steers well north of the islands or weakens before arrival.
Large swells generated by Kiko will propagate outward for hundreds of miles and may reach the Big Island on Sunday. Seas and surf will build ahead of the storm, so small craft, swimmers and surfers should exercise caution starting late Sunday or Monday around the Big Island first, then spreading westward throughout the islands.
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The magnitude of impacts on the Hawaiian Islands will depend on the intensity and track of Kiko thisweek. The intensity will affect the strength of the winds, and the track will affect the primary direction of the winds.
In areas where winds blow uphill over the mountainous terrain, torrential rain and localized flooding may occur.
“Rainfall of 1–2 inches is expected across most of the Hawaiian Islands during the middle of the week as Kiko passes,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said. “Rainfall of 2–4 inches is possible along the eastern and northern sides of the Big Island and across Maui, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 10 inches”
Downslope winds will create rain shadow areas with limited showers. In these areas, ongoing drought and strong winds may raise the risk of wildfire ignition and rapid spread as Kiko passes.
"As Kiko passes in the middle of the week, wind gusts of 40–50 mph, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 60 mph, are possible, especially along the windward sides of the Big Island, Maui, Oahu, including Honolulu, and Kaua'i,” Roys said.
Winds of this strength could cause localized tree damage and downed power lines.
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