Hurricane Rafael makes landfall in Cuba before entering Gulf of Mexico
Although the latest trends on the future path of the storm are good news for the United States, AccuWeather forecasters say it is too early to give the all clear on tropical impacts along the Gulf coast.
Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba as a Category 3 storm at 4:15 p.m. ET Wednesday in the Cuban province of Artemisa, just east of Playa Majana, with maximum sustained winds estimated to be 115 mph.
Rafael is tracking into the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to spend some time as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane before losing some wind intensity due to progressively cooler waters and increasing wind shear. Once it enters the Gulf, AccuWeather hurricane experts say there are several routes the storm could take.
"Once in the Gulf of Mexico, slight differences in Rafael's intensity and atmospheric steering winds could have a significant impact on its final track," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger said.
Rafael and its winds will be large and strong enough to create rough seas over the Gulf of Mexico, building surf and triggering beach erosion along shores. Should the storm track make landfall, some coastal flooding is likely to the north and east of the storm track.
Still great 'wiggle room' with Rafael's track toward US
The probability of any U.S. landfall is extremely low. However, since steering breezes may change a bit late this week and this weekend due to the approach of a non-tropical storm from the south-central U.S., residents of the Gulf Coast should still monitor Rafael.
The more likely scenario takes Rafael westward across the Gulf of Mexico rather than jogging it northward toward the U.S. In this case, the impact on the U.S. would be minimal.
"It is also possible Rafael is torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and dissipates in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall," Deger said.
A stronger hurricane would tend to track more to the east rather than north. In this case, impacts would be greater along the Florida Gulf coast, including from storm surge. This is the least likely scenario at this point.
AccuWeather meteorologists say a zone of downpours will set up well ahead of Rafael over the southern Atlantic coast into the weekend. These preceding downpours can trigger incidents of flash flooding, but a repeat of the flooding disaster that led up to Helene is not expected.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic
AccuWeather meteorologists are watching another area that could churn out a tropical depression or storm as it approaches the Leeward Islands and moves along the northern islands of the Caribbean this week.
Sara is the next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season after Rafael.
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