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Chalane makes landfall in Madagascar, first of the season for basin

By Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Dec 27, 2020 6:09 AM EDT

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The Washington County School District in Utah put together one of the more unique holiday light shows by syncing five school buses to music from The Nutcracker performed by the Utah Symphony Orchestra.

After forging a path toward Madagascar for much of the week, Tropical Depression Chalane has become the first land-falling cyclone of the season in the southern Indian Ocean.

Chalane made landfall on Saturday evening, local time, near Mahavelona along the northeastern coast of Madagascar.

An AccuWeather RealVue™ satellite image of Tropical Depression Chalane to the east of Madagascar on Saturday afternoon, local time. (AccuWeather)

A tropical low that AccuWeather meteorologists had been monitoring for development was classified as a tropical depression by Météo France’s La Réunion on Wednesday morning, local time. The depression strengthened further and was designated a moderate tropical storm and given the name Chalane on Thursday morning, local time.

By Saturday morning, Chalane was a tropical depression and was churning just offshore of northeastern Madagascar. Chalane remained in an environment conducive for tropical systems to maintain their strength up until the system made landfall Saturday evening.

To strengthen, tropical systems need at least two main atmospheric ingredients -- warm waters and a lack of vertical wind shear.

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As of Saturday night, local time, Chalane continued to maintain its tropical depression status over land with 10-minute maximum sustained winds of 56 km/h (35 mph).

As the storm crosses northern Madagascar late this week, periods of tropical rainfall, gusty winds and rough seas will continue to pound the island nation.

"The storm should eventually emerge over the Mozambique Channel on Monday, local time," AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls said.

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The heaviest rains from the storm will impact much of northern Madagascar through Monday. A general 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) of rainfall is expected to deluge much of northern Madagascar and the country’s eastern coast after the system makes landfall and slowly tracks west. Forecasters say there can be an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches (305 mm).

Rainfall of this magnitude will likely lead to flooding issues for the region and will also increase the threat for mudslides.

Most of the heaviest rainfall from this event is set to occur just north of the capital city of Antananarivo, but any tropical downpours may lead to flash flooding concerns for the region.

In addition to heavy rain, gusty winds can lead to wind damage and power outages for portions of Madagascar, especially near where the system made landfall on Saturday. Forecasters expect an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 75 mph (120 kph) near where landfall occurred.

Beyond Madagascar, it is possible that this system regains strength once it enters the Mozambique Channel early next week, before potentially striking Mozambique around midweek.

Chalane can impact portions of Mozambique still struggling to recover from Intense Tropical Cyclone Idai back in mid- to late-March of 2019.

This tropical system is the third named tropical system of the season for the South-West Indian Ocean basin and is the first of the season to make landfall in the basin.

The 2020 South-West Indian Ocean basin cyclone season officially began on 15 Nov. and will end on 30 April 2021. There have been two named tropical systems so far this season: Tropical Cyclone Alicia and Severe Tropical Storm Bongoyo. Alicia churned in the basin from 12 Nov. to 17 Nov. while Bongoyo was in the basin from 30 Nov. to 11 Dec. Both systems remained over the open waters of the Indian Ocean during their respective lifetimes.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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