Caribbean could spawn tropical storm as final month of hurricane season begins
The tropical Atlantic has been quiet since the dissipation of Hurricane Oscar, but AccuWeather hurricane experts say that will change as the final month of the hurricane season begins.
AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva and Bernie Rayno warn of the increased risk of tropical activity in the Caribbean and Atlantic as we move into the month of November.
With no active tropical storms or hurricanes currently in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean, some may think that the tropical season has already ended. However, AccuWeather hurricane experts warn that people should not be lulled into a false sense of security.
"As we move into early November, the focus for tropical development shifts closer to the United States. Typically, the areas of focus late in the season are the Caribbean and off the Southeast coast," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
Specifically, the Caribbean is the primary area of interest that AccuWeather hurricane experts are watching. This area has been outlined for well over a week, and the dates for expected development are drawing closer.
AccuWeather designated this area as a potential development zone well ahead of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and currently rates it as high risk (likely to develop) as opposed to the NHC's medium risk (40%).
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"Atmospheric conditions will be very conducive for development in the central Caribbean from late this week into early next week. Very warm water combined with low wind shear can allow for development," explained DaSilva.
Low shear is conducive to tropical development. In the case of low wind shear, an organizing tropical feature does not get torn apart before it can fully develop. Meanwhile, warm water provides fuel for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop, allowing further organization.
"If there is low wind shear, which we expect, I think we will be getting a tropical depression or storm to form," said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Patty.
There is another factor aiding in the potential tropical development.
"This potential tropical development is partially the result of the Central American Gyre, which is more active at the start and end of the tropical season," noted DaSilva.
Regardless of development, widespread downpours are expected over much of the Caribbean this week. Life-threatening mudslides and flash flooding can result, even in the unlikely event that a tropical depression or tropical storm does not develop.
Although tropical storms that form from the gyre can sometimes take several days to become better organized, development can sometimes ramp up quickly once it begins. Most recently, Oscar rapidly intensified from a tropical rainstorm to a hurricane in just a matter of hours.
"Storms in the Caribbean usually move to the north or northeast in November. This means that residents and visitors from Florida (including the Gulf Coast) to the Carolinas will have to keep a close eye on development," cautioned DaSilva. "Even if a tropical storm forms and tracks into Mexico or Central America, changing steering winds can turn that storm to the northeast and toward Florida later on."
Hurricane Mitch, from around the same time of the year in 1998, did just that maneuver.
Although much of the focus is on the Caribbean, there is a second area with a low risk of tropical development.
The second area that may develop will be associated with the tail end of a cold front that will move off the East Coast late this week. If an area of low pressure forms and is not attached to the front, then the development potential could increase.
Following Patty, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane list is Rafael.
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